(Trying to fulfill my promise of translating all of my text posts into audio or video. This seemed like an important one to do before the election. Please think about it and share it. And vote!)
We have seen this show before. We know what Trump losing looks like.
Three Trumpian actions are predictable. We know them from the last election.
Last time around, when Trump lost, when Trump knew that he lost, he:
1. Claimed that he won (November)
2. Filed lawsuits (November-December)
3. Encouraged violence (January)
He did these three things because he lost. They comprise the loser triad.
Judging from past behavior, though, a repetition of the loser triad would signal that Trump believes that he has lost.
In 2024, though, the sequence will be different.
Allies of Trump have already filed dozens of lawsuits. Pro-Trump violence is likely to begin around election day rather than in January.
But the timing of Trump's claiming victory will likely be the same, shortly after the election but before the outcome has been confirmed.
To be clear, anything can happen. Either candidate can win. That is why we vote and count the votes. And that is exactly why we should not engage in behaviors like the loser triad. The loser triad indicates that a loser is trying to break the system.
This time around, the three actions will likely come in the following sequence.
Trump, in the 2024 loser triad:
1. Files lawsuits (already happening, even before the election!)
2. Encourages violence (around election day, most likely)
3. Claims that he won (shortly after election day).
If Trump again claims too early that he won, this is not just a statement like any other. It is part of a plan to take power by a candidate who believes that he has lost an election -- a repeat of a behavior that we know very well.
If Trump claims victory, that is a good sign that Harris has won the election.
The Loser Triad (video and text)