22 Comments

"I hope this post has helped." Indeed, it has, as do all of your posts, and your links to "proper" military historians. Thank you.

"The Russian "reasons" for fighting the war do not prepare the way for victory, but they do prepare the way for atrocity..." All the more reason for US to not loose sight of continuing support in every way possible. If the atrocity isn't convincing enough, I don't what is.

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Excellent analysis as always. Russian troops are mutinying, morale is low, the bridges, railheads, and depots that they rely upon are being taken out. Their first rate troops and equipment are shot, and Ukraine is cutting off their troops around Kherson, with Russian commanders begging for safe passages to retreat.

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Jul 26, 2022·edited Jul 27, 2022

'The State of the Russo-Ukrainian War': your organization and elaboration on each of the TELLMES: time, economics, logistics, landscape, mode of combat, ethos, and strategy as well as consideration of 'the wild card of international public opinion' enabled me to see the whole of the war and beyond it.

I am always looking for lessons with which to understand the USA's condition. Your piece about the war radiates with thoughts about democracy. I believe that understanding America's war with itself requires knowing a great deal more about the American people, not strictly in terms of public opinion within the country but also, along with an examination of our TELLMES as they concern the lives and needs of the people. Your 'American Abyss' of 1/2021, was a portrait of the whole of the country. Prescriptions for patient America cannot be written without a deep, cleareyed analysis of the American people. We are missing that. As president Biden tries to mend the country,

'I have said it many times, and it is no more true or real than when we think about the events of January 6: We are in a battle for the soul of America.

'A battle that by the grace of God, and by the goodness and greatness of this nation, we will win.'

--what of the American people, now, with so many filled with hate, fear and mistrust of almost everything the country has stood for?

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Another interesting essay. The first thing I thought about when I read, "Wars are predictably unpredictable," was the epilogue in "War and Peace"! Then I clicked on the link to find Isaiah Berlin's essay. Just bought it. Thanks for that.

Was surprised to learn that "[i]n the clips that I hear, Russian commanders do not really seem to know why they are in Ukraine." I've been reading translations of ordinary soldiers saying the same thing in phone intercepts as well as after they've been captured, which is not especially surprising. But commanders? That's shocking.

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Inspiration can come from informed, clear-eyed analysis of the facts, as your posts demonstrate. The view that Ukraine can win appears to me, too, more widespread among military specialists than the mainstream media would have us think. I read the daily assessment of the Institute for the Study of War every evening, which has steadily noted the increasing vulnerabilities of the Russian side as the invasion grinds on. As I watch and cheer on the Ukrainian resistance, I'm struck by how technology-savvy the Ukrainians are and how they seem to be revolutionizing techniques for maximum advantage in the information/communication space. How can Western technology and media investors fail to see the potential of Ukraine as a tech powerhouse when victory is achieved? A message for your friends in Ukraine: the Ukrainian flags and "We Support Ukraine" yard signs are still up in my town at 5 months and counting.

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I have justifiable evidence of Ukraine's courage and resolve but my faith in American resolve is shaky. I want to be proved wrong, but the turmoil, both domestic and abroad over the past half decade have shaken my belief and faith.

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"Our job" indeed could be easier and more straight forward here: continued resolve and support. The difficulty, however, is defining "our"/ "we/us". If the US continues its resolute action, can it prevail-- especially in keeping other countries' on board? And, if not...what results, as , for example, winter and it's heating and energy needs come to the fore. An ironic possibility given the history in the USSR in winter 1941-1942. I hope you're proven right , though. TBD. Thanks.

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Brilliant and "on the right side of history".

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One has only to watch 'Chernobyl: The Lost Tapes' (HBO) to understand why Putin is losing the war. The respect given to Russia by the West reflects a total failure to understand how rotten is the ruling elite and its institutions. One hundred years of despotism and genocide has deprived an entire nation of any understanding of the degree to which they are ignorant and naive. They are uneducated, subservient, repressed, devoid of knowledge of life in the 20th and 21st centuries. They are barely better off than were the serfs. Two hundred thousand ++ Russians were killed by their soviet masters as a result of the Chernobyl disaster. They were victims of lies, manipulation, evil, and soviet disregard for human life. Do not fail to watch the HBO documentary. You will be sickened by the truth.

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An interesting addition to this discussion is the thoughtful perspective from today's (July 27) Toronto Globe and Mail editorial, "Sanctions: Please aim before firing".

I very much appreciate the wild card effect of public opinion to this important struggle as outlined in the article, however, as the Globe points out, "sanctions are not a public relations exercise, or virtue signalling. They make sense where they impose significant costs on Russia; they make considerably less sense when their main impact is collateral damage."

Let us cheer on the unexpected military success of the plucky and resilient Ukrainian soldiers, and pour on the military assistance. They are going to need it. But the expectation that the West would crush Russia with sanctions has proven false, as per the Globe article. So far, the sanctions have done much to hurt Europe, especially a Germany, which has developed an unhealthy appetite for Russian energy. As pointed out here by Dr. Snyder, the sanctions have an impact upon the high tech weapons production. More targeted sanctions would be helpful. And as my fellow readers of Thinking About...have pointed out, the wildest card will be who controls the reigns of power in Washington in the coming years. I fear greatly for all of us. Especially for my fellow Canadians. We share this bed with the American elephant, and stand little chance of surviving a rollover.

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Thank you, professor! I am very skeptical of the American public's ability to maintain focus on the war in the long term. If Russians in cities are somewhat detached from the hostilities by watching THEIR war on television, Americans are that much more detached watching someone else's war on television. Political instability in the U.S. is another potential wildcard. If Trump is elected (whether legitimately or otherwise) for another term in 2025, his non-interventionist foreign policy will likely result in a drastic reduction (if not outright cessation) of support for Ukraine. In this sense, time may be on the side of the aggressor.

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Agree with all the comments. Brilliant. Insightful. Magnificently written. Educational. And inspiring. jbr

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Please send this article to all the newspapers in the United States. Americans need to understand the Russian mentality as well as the Ukrainian's. Thank you for this.

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Thank you for the well-organized review. The 'TELLMES' structure appears to cover the spectrum of the known factors.

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Timothy,

This seems prescient in view of the Ukranian Offensive of September. Great work!

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The Republican Party was able to deliver one American presidential election to Putin -- and vice-versa. The question is, can that happen again? If the flawed US electoral contraption delivers Trump or a facsimile, the coalition Biden achieved could collapse.

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