And there you have it. Ignorance is bliss, that is, until we wake from such woke mindset. Face it. The Democratic party is dead. It began to die the minute it challenged Trump with lies over the 2016 victory, seething to prove Hilary should have been. It's been history every since that to this day, the Democrat party cannot accept, which is why while democracy will continue to thrive under Trump, the Democratic party will DIE in its own darkness of political animus.
Yeah, what is abstracted by these means may not be very useful, may be useless, may be counter-productive.
The core issue of democratic society is communication among ourselves, of communicating and doing so among ourselves and with each other in both heart-felt and factually rich and exhaustive ways, and then keeping the sharing in the context of maintaining our democratic and cooperative context of mutual interest and mutual benefit.
We can approach each other and perceive the differences we have in a way that is subtle but informative; the subtlety is the in the profound realization that for each of us personal awareness is partial and incomplete as well as circumstantial in terms of our capacities to hold 'all' in our sense of any given moment. I consciously reflect on my relationship moments as if each of us was a person with such partial momentary grasp of circumstance and opportunity, but each of us affirmed our conscientious and mutual respect and purpose for the choice to come together.
Our relationships in American society are now very visibly and in many tangible ways tense with misunderstanding, distorted by fears of many, made more tenuous in capacity by the sense of opportunity for remorselessly selfish gain by a few.
We see these harsh realities of different outlook and intent in both the results of polls and in moments each of us has wherein in one or some among us refuse to listen, refuse to discuss, or insist on personal righteousness and entitlement at the personal expense of others.
But we are better informed and can more actively and conscientiously pursue more information and more useful opportunities to dispel opposing perspectives with fact and with intention and with an intent on common sense cooperation.
Professor Snyder, thank you so much for giving me and so many of us hope and useful perspectives through these years. This one particularly welcome today and I am already sharing it with my loved ones across the country and world, who are standing as well in solidarity with the better angels of our natures today.
Thank you, Brother Chris, for sharing sincere gratitude.
Prof Snyder does act to provide lessons that inspire mutual hope and mutually useful perspective to be actively free and confident in supporting each of us to be actively free and cooperative.
This year the shadows on the cave wall have been carefully crafted to preserve the mirage of Donald Trump and the power of his MAGA cult. It's all bullshit, but it's the bulshit the corporate media needs to drive clicks and eyeballs. The recent Iowa poll, and the desperation of MAGA men to force their wives to vote for Trump is a sign that he, and many other Republicans are in deep shit. People are tired of the hate, the racism, the misogyny and the threats of violence. And women (and more than a few men) are just just plain furious over Dobbs. Trump assured the MAGA horde that the election will be decided tonight. He may be right, but if so, it won't be in his favor.
And when he loses can one of the judges please revoke his bail?
Yes, please vote. Polls are for spectators. Voting is for sovereigns.
In Rucho v. Common Cause, 588 U.S. 684 (2019) (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422) Justices Kagan, Ginsburg, Breyer and Sotomayor dissented with this important reminder: "Election day" is the day that especially strongly "links the people to their representatives, and gives the people their sovereign power. That day is the foundation of democratic governance."
The Rucho dissent also quoted this language from the majority opinion in Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Comm'n, 576 U.S. 787 (2015): “The core principle of republican government,” is “that the voters should choose their representatives, not the other way around.”
The Arizona majority also quoted Hamilton: “[T]he true principle of a republic is, that the people should choose whom they please to govern them.”
Whether the polls are close or far apart, election day is our day to have our say about who should govern us and how.
These observations and the beautiful expression of them are so useful to us now.
What can choose that '' it happen '' among all and for all of us who actively and conscientiously embrace it and work together to bring about these increments of personal and social living better.
Thanks for this. Recently I've been reading about the problems inherent in herding.
I voted by mail and my ballot was accepted on 10/18, so I'm going back to Vilnius/Vil'nius/Wilno/Vil'nia/Vilne in "The Reconstruction of Nations," which is about as far away from today's events as I can get. I might take a break or two and step out front to pull a few weeds, too, since we got 2.5" last night and the best time to pull weeds is after a good rain. Because California is 2 hours behind me in Texas, I'm just going to keep reading and pulling weeds until about 10pm Central. By the way, "The Reconstruction of Nations" is really good. I'm enjoying it very much. I wasn't ready for it in fall 2022, but have finally reached a point at which I can absorb and understand it at a much deeper level than I could have 2 years ago. The history of Belarus is easier to grasp now.
Thanks again for your hard work and devotion to us.
The way each of us understands personal responsibility and our social responsibility as political actor is the way the election, once each of us votes and thereby contributes to the intent of being self-governing and to the support for the forms of democratic constitutional self-governance, prepares us for the upcoming days and so on in political civil society and in the other areas of personal and social relationship.
As Prof Snyder notes, "...above all, get out of the polling cave and into the real world. Vote, and relish that you can vote.
There is a world out there, one that is not driven by our anxieties and their profiteers, one that, every once in a while, can be changed by our actions.
We have been held for months in the polling cave. But today you can escape that shadowy delusion and help create a better world outside."
The end message is all about human agency and human creative capacities: "So get out there and be part of the big surprise."
Each of can aim for political representation of both common interests and common, valued outcomes. The other and very important [also] areas of living are given value and support because we compliment these with the constituting of and inclusive active perpetuation of an improvable, reciprocally livable political space. The Constitution provides for this democratic, self-regulating process of introducing changes in governing by means of changes of persons in government who respect the constitutional purposes and forms and who share the common values and objectives voted for; only we provide the will and resolve to end the electoral process with the inauguration of cooperative efforts in both governance and efforts to improve everyone's means of living well and living together.
To me an interesting fact of human history and of contributing to a novel and useful shared understanding of this sort of moment, a contribution made long long before the ratification of the US Constitution BUT with an awareness of the very human need and social living need to challenge the "what is'' and to cooperatively decide on commonly identified alternative means and adjustments to outcomes is ... the concluding scenes of The Odyssey, by Homer. This may seem arcane and not currently relevant. However,...
In Plato's parable, coming out the cave and in returning to the actual day to day constellation of activities and relationships and choices, there is a moment, longer or shorter, during which we can commit again to formal cooperation and common purpose, or wherein chaos and violent confrontation attempt to define 'final outcome'. Homer or the Homeric assessment would appear to contrast what is possible for the resolution in 'personal relationship' action with what is likely in congregate social, especially political, relationship action.
Together, these ancient views present questions which arise again and again.
Whether a person sees the former personal realm or the congregate social realm as more influential in bringing about cooperation and equity and security that affects each and all, the question is an essential one. The question has been given one answer, it seems to me, centuries later by means of the willful initial formation and ratification of our democratically maintained and improvable Constitution.
The post election period could be a period of internal division and confrontation; but it is entirely possible that if pursued within the scope of the Constitution, by consciously employing its meaning and conditions and relationship forms of use, we can choose to work into cooperative relationship, again. Instead of intervention by Athena, our commitment to improved use of a constitutional relationship and effort can be our path of return to social cooperation and mutual benefit, the common inclusive ground that is a clear alternative to violence and to unfreedom.
As Kamala says, a real leader lifts up the people. Let's hope we can elevate the education of Americans so they never again fall for a ludicrous, felonious, and treasonous con-man.
I don't doubt that we'll still have the "right" to vote. But there is considerable cause for concern about whether our votes will count. That might depend on who will be counting our votes. See https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/stalin-vote-count-quote/
Here in the UK the BBC is committing balance in every bulletin and has been for weeks - it keeps the "neck and neck" drama rolling, and their interviews give the impression that every Harris voter goes everywhere with a Trump voter by their side, waiting for an eager reporter to approach them.
In the language of machine learning the "adjustments" made by the pollsters for 2024 based on earlier elections constitute data snooping, which invalidates the results. Thinking of it in another way, a a problem in filtering, it assumes time stationarity, which cannot be established a-priori.
These are two more reasons to avoid obsession with election polls.
There are lies, damn lies, statistics, polls, and then there are Republican polls.
Ever since the Great Polling Debacle of 2016, I ignore the polls, all of them, the good, the bad, and the ugly.
Wolf on CNN says it best https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQeo2pMqg2A
And there you have it. Ignorance is bliss, that is, until we wake from such woke mindset. Face it. The Democratic party is dead. It began to die the minute it challenged Trump with lies over the 2016 victory, seething to prove Hilary should have been. It's been history every since that to this day, the Democrat party cannot accept, which is why while democracy will continue to thrive under Trump, the Democratic party will DIE in its own darkness of political animus.
Thanks for these observations, Sky 777.
Yeah, what is abstracted by these means may not be very useful, may be useless, may be counter-productive.
The core issue of democratic society is communication among ourselves, of communicating and doing so among ourselves and with each other in both heart-felt and factually rich and exhaustive ways, and then keeping the sharing in the context of maintaining our democratic and cooperative context of mutual interest and mutual benefit.
We can approach each other and perceive the differences we have in a way that is subtle but informative; the subtlety is the in the profound realization that for each of us personal awareness is partial and incomplete as well as circumstantial in terms of our capacities to hold 'all' in our sense of any given moment. I consciously reflect on my relationship moments as if each of us was a person with such partial momentary grasp of circumstance and opportunity, but each of us affirmed our conscientious and mutual respect and purpose for the choice to come together.
Our relationships in American society are now very visibly and in many tangible ways tense with misunderstanding, distorted by fears of many, made more tenuous in capacity by the sense of opportunity for remorselessly selfish gain by a few.
We see these harsh realities of different outlook and intent in both the results of polls and in moments each of us has wherein in one or some among us refuse to listen, refuse to discuss, or insist on personal righteousness and entitlement at the personal expense of others.
But we are better informed and can more actively and conscientiously pursue more information and more useful opportunities to dispel opposing perspectives with fact and with intention and with an intent on common sense cooperation.
Professor Snyder, thank you so much for giving me and so many of us hope and useful perspectives through these years. This one particularly welcome today and I am already sharing it with my loved ones across the country and world, who are standing as well in solidarity with the better angels of our natures today.
Thank you, Brother Chris, for sharing sincere gratitude.
Prof Snyder does act to provide lessons that inspire mutual hope and mutually useful perspective to be actively free and confident in supporting each of us to be actively free and cooperative.
This year the shadows on the cave wall have been carefully crafted to preserve the mirage of Donald Trump and the power of his MAGA cult. It's all bullshit, but it's the bulshit the corporate media needs to drive clicks and eyeballs. The recent Iowa poll, and the desperation of MAGA men to force their wives to vote for Trump is a sign that he, and many other Republicans are in deep shit. People are tired of the hate, the racism, the misogyny and the threats of violence. And women (and more than a few men) are just just plain furious over Dobbs. Trump assured the MAGA horde that the election will be decided tonight. He may be right, but if so, it won't be in his favor.
And when he loses can one of the judges please revoke his bail?
Yes, please vote. Polls are for spectators. Voting is for sovereigns.
In Rucho v. Common Cause, 588 U.S. 684 (2019) (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-422) Justices Kagan, Ginsburg, Breyer and Sotomayor dissented with this important reminder: "Election day" is the day that especially strongly "links the people to their representatives, and gives the people their sovereign power. That day is the foundation of democratic governance."
The Rucho dissent also quoted this language from the majority opinion in Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Comm'n, 576 U.S. 787 (2015): “The core principle of republican government,” is “that the voters should choose their representatives, not the other way around.”
The Arizona majority also quoted Hamilton: “[T]he true principle of a republic is, that the people should choose whom they please to govern them.”
Whether the polls are close or far apart, election day is our day to have our say about who should govern us and how.
The wisest observations on poll fallacies yet written.
Sometimes by Sheenagh Pugh
Sometimes things don't go, after all,
from bad to worse. Some years, muscadel
faces down frost; green thrives; the crops don't fail,
sometimes a man aims high, and all goes well.
A people sometimes will step back from war;
elect an honest man (woman); decide they care
enough, that they can't leave some stranger poor.
Some men become what they were born for.
Sometimes our best efforts do not go
amiss; sometimes we do as we meant to.
The sun will sometimes melt a field of sorrow
that seemed hard frozen: may it happen for you.
Thank you and right on, Mr. Ogner.
These observations and the beautiful expression of them are so useful to us now.
What can choose that '' it happen '' among all and for all of us who actively and conscientiously embrace it and work together to bring about these increments of personal and social living better.
Thanks for this. Recently I've been reading about the problems inherent in herding.
I voted by mail and my ballot was accepted on 10/18, so I'm going back to Vilnius/Vil'nius/Wilno/Vil'nia/Vilne in "The Reconstruction of Nations," which is about as far away from today's events as I can get. I might take a break or two and step out front to pull a few weeds, too, since we got 2.5" last night and the best time to pull weeds is after a good rain. Because California is 2 hours behind me in Texas, I'm just going to keep reading and pulling weeds until about 10pm Central. By the way, "The Reconstruction of Nations" is really good. I'm enjoying it very much. I wasn't ready for it in fall 2022, but have finally reached a point at which I can absorb and understand it at a much deeper level than I could have 2 years ago. The history of Belarus is easier to grasp now.
Thanks again for your hard work and devotion to us.
As to analysis (as opposed to polls) I follow Tom Bonier, TargetSmart, and Simon Rosenberg, Hopium Chronicles, who follow data. This from yesterday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRi4Cenw1Kg&t=647s
Thank you, Teresa. This was very interesting, and hopeful.
Amen
This essay is profoundly important.
The way each of us understands personal responsibility and our social responsibility as political actor is the way the election, once each of us votes and thereby contributes to the intent of being self-governing and to the support for the forms of democratic constitutional self-governance, prepares us for the upcoming days and so on in political civil society and in the other areas of personal and social relationship.
As Prof Snyder notes, "...above all, get out of the polling cave and into the real world. Vote, and relish that you can vote.
There is a world out there, one that is not driven by our anxieties and their profiteers, one that, every once in a while, can be changed by our actions.
We have been held for months in the polling cave. But today you can escape that shadowy delusion and help create a better world outside."
The end message is all about human agency and human creative capacities: "So get out there and be part of the big surprise."
Each of can aim for political representation of both common interests and common, valued outcomes. The other and very important [also] areas of living are given value and support because we compliment these with the constituting of and inclusive active perpetuation of an improvable, reciprocally livable political space. The Constitution provides for this democratic, self-regulating process of introducing changes in governing by means of changes of persons in government who respect the constitutional purposes and forms and who share the common values and objectives voted for; only we provide the will and resolve to end the electoral process with the inauguration of cooperative efforts in both governance and efforts to improve everyone's means of living well and living together.
To me an interesting fact of human history and of contributing to a novel and useful shared understanding of this sort of moment, a contribution made long long before the ratification of the US Constitution BUT with an awareness of the very human need and social living need to challenge the "what is'' and to cooperatively decide on commonly identified alternative means and adjustments to outcomes is ... the concluding scenes of The Odyssey, by Homer. This may seem arcane and not currently relevant. However,...
In Plato's parable, coming out the cave and in returning to the actual day to day constellation of activities and relationships and choices, there is a moment, longer or shorter, during which we can commit again to formal cooperation and common purpose, or wherein chaos and violent confrontation attempt to define 'final outcome'. Homer or the Homeric assessment would appear to contrast what is possible for the resolution in 'personal relationship' action with what is likely in congregate social, especially political, relationship action.
Together, these ancient views present questions which arise again and again.
Whether a person sees the former personal realm or the congregate social realm as more influential in bringing about cooperation and equity and security that affects each and all, the question is an essential one. The question has been given one answer, it seems to me, centuries later by means of the willful initial formation and ratification of our democratically maintained and improvable Constitution.
The post election period could be a period of internal division and confrontation; but it is entirely possible that if pursued within the scope of the Constitution, by consciously employing its meaning and conditions and relationship forms of use, we can choose to work into cooperative relationship, again. Instead of intervention by Athena, our commitment to improved use of a constitutional relationship and effort can be our path of return to social cooperation and mutual benefit, the common inclusive ground that is a clear alternative to violence and to unfreedom.
As Kamala says, a real leader lifts up the people. Let's hope we can elevate the education of Americans so they never again fall for a ludicrous, felonious, and treasonous con-man.
All well said but the real question is if we will be voting in two or four years. Sorry just my anxiety level is a bit high..
Generations of Americans before us have led the fight for freedom. The fight for a better future. Now, the baton is in our hands.
Together, we will write the next chapter in the most extraordinary story ever told.
It is time to turn the page on the drama and conflict, the fear and division. And it is time for a new generation of leadership in America.
Thank you,
Kamala
Kamala Harris Vice President of the United States 🗽
I don't doubt that we'll still have the "right" to vote. But there is considerable cause for concern about whether our votes will count. That might depend on who will be counting our votes. See https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/stalin-vote-count-quote/
Here in the UK the BBC is committing balance in every bulletin and has been for weeks - it keeps the "neck and neck" drama rolling, and their interviews give the impression that every Harris voter goes everywhere with a Trump voter by their side, waiting for an eager reporter to approach them.
This is a great way to view polls and a good reason not to get all bent out of shape. Thanks for this.
Another in a string of very useful and important posts! Your wisdom is very much appreciated.
In the language of machine learning the "adjustments" made by the pollsters for 2024 based on earlier elections constitute data snooping, which invalidates the results. Thinking of it in another way, a a problem in filtering, it assumes time stationarity, which cannot be established a-priori.
These are two more reasons to avoid obsession with election polls.