The Loser Triad
Three Signs that Trump Has Lost
We have seen this show before. We know what Trump losing looks like.
Three Trumpian actions are predictable. We know them from the last election.
Last time around, when Trump lost, when Trump knew that he lost, he:
1. Claimed that he won (November)
2. Filed lawsuits (November-December)
3. Encouraged violence (January)
He did these three things because he lost. They comprise the loser triad.
Judging from past behavior, though, a repetition of the loser triad would signal that Trump believes that he has lost.
In 2024, though, the sequence will be different.
Allies of Trump have already filed dozens of lawsuits. Pro-Trump violence is likely to begin around election day rather than in January.
But the timing of Trump's claiming victory will likely be the same, shortly after the election but before the outcome has been confirmed.
To be clear, anything can happen. Either candidate can win. That is why we vote and count the votes. And that is exactly why we should not engage in behaviors like the loser triad. The loser triad indicates that a loser is trying to break the system.
This time around, the three actions will likely come in the following sequence.
Trump, in the 2024 loser triad:
1. Files lawsuits (already happening, even before the election!)
2. Encourages violence (around election day, most likely)
3. Claims that he won (shortly after election day).
If Trump again claims too early that he won, this is not just a statement like any other. It is part of a plan to take power by a candidate who believes that he has lost an election -- a repeat of a behavior that we know very well.
If Trump claims victory, that is a good sign that Harris has won the election.
And when Trump's MAGA thugs get violent, we need Biden to do what is necessary to bring them to heel. That means deploying the National Guard. That means mobilizing federal law enforcement (because so much of local law enforcement is compromised). And if necessary, it means invoking the Insurrection Act and throwing Trump and his inner circle in prison. We, the people, do not need to tolerate the violent acts of a minority that is having a tantrum because their Cult Leader lost...again.
I am really worried after hearing Ruth Ben-Ghiat and Jason Stanley last night. I am a specialist in Russia and WWII, and have been watching things devolve in a familiar fashion. But they point specifically to the normalization of language in preparation for the normalization of deeds. I am sure they are right, which means we are well along a terribly dangerous path. I think most people still don’t believe how ghastly, how obscene the rounding up of hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of immigrants would be. The hate and poison would get into the bloodstream of the,country. Moreover, I don’t think they understand that at some point everyone will become an enemy to be dealt with—immigrants, “marxists” , “communists”, LGBTQ folks, etc., etc. And of course none of the labels are clearly defined and can be used to apply to anyone. I want to post about this. I think we are in imminent danger, not something way down the road. Your thoughts would be most welcome.