This is a convincing analysis of the war situation. I haven't heard anyone else describe it in this way, and it sounds plausible. Russia is an enigma wrapped in a mystery, but you've unwrapped some of that. Also, made me feel a lot more reason for optimism. These are scary times, so it is valuable to receive such a cool-headed analysis. Thank you.
I think that more than "useful idiots", Putin relies on "useful fearmongers" in his propaganda campaign. Putin is hoping that vague threats to use nukes will be enough to blackmail the West into letting him have Ukraine.
There are plenty of voices who say we need to immediately "deescalate" or "offramp" the Ukraine conflict based on said vague threats, but those people are the useful fearmongers, because a ceasefire is exactly what Putin needs to regroup his forces and prepare the next wave of the invasion. We would be wise to deny him that ceasefire and let his losses keep piling up.
As for the need to “avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating defeat or nuclear war”, nuclear powers have been humiliated plenty of times before without any nukes flying:
- USSR in Afghanistan (the US supplied the resistance very much like Ukraine today)
- US in Vietnam
- USSR imploding and the Berlin Wall coming down
- US in Iraq
- US in Afghanistan
- UK when China wiped their ass with the Hong Kong Treaty
Happy International Teachers' Day, Professor Snyder. Knowing is not enough, you need to be able to share that knowledge and you do it with great vigour, wisdom and spirit. Thank you from your 70-year-old online student of the Yale course on Ukraine.
Hello, Rose, how sweet of you to ask! I'll just fill you in on the Ukraine projects (these have become a priority and so I needed to cut back on a number of other projects - both for time and money -, another sad side effect of the war). I'm still running two JustGiving fundraisers from where the money goes to trustworthy Ukrainians helping refugees in Poland. I also contributed to buying a Turkish Bayraktar drone for the Ukrainian army, and surreal as it was to make a donation for such a purpose, I'm glad I did it.
On the Day of Ukrainian Independence, I sent a personal message to each of those hosts who would have entertained me in Kyiv in March this year via airbnb. Some of those hosts are not members any more, but I would like to go and meet the rest next spring when I'm in Hungary and can get to Kyiv without much difficulty. All of them urged me to do so at the time of the "fake" bookings :-).
All my Ukrainian teacher friends from the Laos school-building project are safe, some in the Czech Republic, others in western Ukraine. My best friend in that group sent her son and father ahead to Ternopil and stayed behind under Russian occupation because her mum's mobility is seriously compromised. She lives/lived near Kupyansk, far too close to the Russian border. I was begging her to leave before it would be too late. In the end, the Russians wanted to take away her Ukrainian passport and lock up the rooms that she was renting to teach unless she signed that she sided with Russia. That was the last straw, they got out via Kharkiv, making a hair-raisingly long and dangerous journey. Her best friend, when she heard the fighting getting closer, panicked and got on an evacuation bus to Russia. Her ex-husband is now trying to rescue her, but it's a nightmare, obviously.
P.S. In the school building community of English teachers and learners, we managed to raise the first USD 50k, and our school in a remote Laotian village opened its doors in September :-). We are now raising money for the next school while also supporting Ukraine as best as we can.
Please let me know if you hear anything about the best friend of the woman from Kup'yans'k. I will light a candle for her, and hope with all my heart that she returns safely. I followed the Battle of Kup'yans'k daily, and rejoiced when the town was liberated.
I hope you have a direct line to folks that are making decisions (POTUS)in how we aid and think about Ukraine. Thank you for sharing your insights. Too often the talking heads do the black and white thinking, nuclear devastation or not. Thank you for detailing other outcomes.
Kadyrov is one of the few people that I fear more than Putin. I don't fear that Putin will use a nuclear weapon, but I do fear the new international order that he wants to create. Kadyrov on the other hand; he seems completely mad.
I wish when you are interviewed on the news the reporters were more informed and could ask better questions so you could unlock their fixed notions and share your point of view with a larger public. Thank you.
I used to work for BBC World Service (Hungarian Section). An average interview was 3 minutes, a "long" one was 5-6 minutes. But I find that even longer interviews with Prof Snyder are only scratching the surface because of the mistaken concept of "newsworthiness" (e.g., the discussion of the nuclear threat). The only satisfying experiences where the professor was able to provide both an overview and an analysis have been the webinars with intelligent and compassionate hosts/presenters or discussions with several guest speakers.* If anyone would just sit down and ask 5-6 relevant questions based on this latest piece (topic by topic), or Prof Snyder were to just READ THE TEXT ALOUD, we would be a lot better off. (He is also very good at to-the-point, succinct answers).
Indeed, that is a great interview enriched by philosophical issues (such as the one about bad ideas, the end of history, the battle of generations, the importance of value-laden stories, etc.) and the fact that a lot of what Timothy Snyder is describing as a possible outcome is emerging in front of our eyes... Very satisfying.
Thank you. Two interviews I listened to said, Welcome Prof. Snyder historian and author of 20 Lessons on Tyranny. One could tell they hadn’t opened the book or viewed a video as any question related to this would help discuss the issue of the attack on Democracy in Ukraine, here at home in the US and worldwide, As Ukraine is carrying Liberty’s Torch and paying with blood it would expand the conversation. I am just learning. Personally The Road To Unfreedom was pivotal to my mindset now
All conflicts lend themselves to nuances. However, the media coverage of this war is heavily tinted by nuke-fear, which Prof Snyder admits is warranted but not to the exclusion of the thinking of the combatants nor of where they find themselves politically and militarily. No one needs reminding that TS is a historian and that our educational ‘system’ would do well to bring the study of history back into our classrooms beginning in elementary school. The thoughts expressed in this article add much to the on-going conversation about Ukraine’s moment in history.
Thank you for this very insightful piece. Although you don’t quite say it, I think the underlying premise of the piece is that at some point Putin beats a strategic retreat and most likely - although not guaranteed - survives. That sounds plausible to me, but I think it is even more plausible that Putin doesn’t survive. After all, Khrushchev didn’t survive the Cuban Missile Crisis, even though not a shot was fired and not a single fatality was suffered. Since the military opposed Putin’s War from the beginning and needs to avoid, if at all possible, being tagged as the scapegoats for it, the one thing that all the warring factions can probably agree on is that this was Putin’s war, not their own. If that’s true, there will inevitably come a day when Putin’s Kremlin guards decide to stay home and enjoy a leisurely breakfast with their pleasantly surprised wives and children. That will be the morning when Putin’s executioners visit him. All dictatorships are impregnable… until the morning when they are not.
This makes sense on so many levels and is very helpful, among other things, in focusing on what is indeed the likely outcome rather than the constant dooms day noise from the mainstream media. I sincerely hope and trust that your subscriber base in and around DC is very large!
so grateful for your commentary, and for the ability to (virtually) audit your history of Ukraine lectures at Yale. other outcomes. yes. and just finished Marci's book on the Maidan; which was excellent.
Thank you Dr. Snyder, for helping me think about my freedom. Your formulation of "Essence before Presence" has helped me understand the true meaning of "Give me liberty or give me death." It is calm. It is filled with equanimity. It is strong.
How important is Kadyrov in the larger picture? He shoots his mouth off a lot, but that doesn't make him politically powerful; he's head of a republic with a population of only about 1.5 million. He holds a general's rank in the Russian army but evidently he doesn't fit anywhere in the normal chain of command. What kind/size of forces does he control? I know he had fighters at Kyiv to attempt to wipe out Zelenskyy and other leaders, but they weren't successful, and I assume some, at least, were killed. How much does Putin trust him? Would he ever be able to get his people close to Putin?
If Putin has to fall back on the regular army for survival, he's probably finished. I doubt the army has very nice thoughts about him now. But I don't think he's ever intended to rely on them for his personal safety. Likewise the FSB, whom Putin probably doesn't have very nice thoughts about after it misled him about the Ukrainians. But Putin also has control of National Guard OMON and SOBR units, who among other things provide security for the president's office. According to Wikipedia, they total around 25,000 highly trained members. That ought to be enough to hold the Kremlin against a bandit like Kadyrov.
Putin's mobilization strikes us as shambolic. But Putin remembers that the Red Army had to pull together a defense after being taken by surprise in 1941. That was infinitely more shambolic, but they prevailed in the end. Putin's father was in an NKVD battle police unit, the kind that summarily executed anyone suspected of sabotage, any soldier separated from his unit if he was not carrying written authorization, and political "unreliables" in general. Savage as it was, that policy was eventually effective; the Red Army lost its fear of the Germans. Putin, of course, doesn't have Siberian divisions to fall back on, or a bottomless supply of replacements, or American Lend-Lease. But he believes in Holy Russia, and he knows it has won against long odds before.
Lucid analysis. I fear the Kadyrow militia and the Wagner group might wait for the best opportunity to to operate a political coup d'état and that this might eventually lead to a "civil war" between what is left of regular Russian armed forces and these postmodern "Armagnacs". The question will be if Putin is still free enough to take sides which regular forces or could become a puppet in the hands of the two condottieri.
Thank you for the sober and elegant analysis.
This is a convincing analysis of the war situation. I haven't heard anyone else describe it in this way, and it sounds plausible. Russia is an enigma wrapped in a mystery, but you've unwrapped some of that. Also, made me feel a lot more reason for optimism. These are scary times, so it is valuable to receive such a cool-headed analysis. Thank you.
I think that more than "useful idiots", Putin relies on "useful fearmongers" in his propaganda campaign. Putin is hoping that vague threats to use nukes will be enough to blackmail the West into letting him have Ukraine.
There are plenty of voices who say we need to immediately "deescalate" or "offramp" the Ukraine conflict based on said vague threats, but those people are the useful fearmongers, because a ceasefire is exactly what Putin needs to regroup his forces and prepare the next wave of the invasion. We would be wise to deny him that ceasefire and let his losses keep piling up.
As for the need to “avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating defeat or nuclear war”, nuclear powers have been humiliated plenty of times before without any nukes flying:
- USSR in Afghanistan (the US supplied the resistance very much like Ukraine today)
- US in Vietnam
- USSR imploding and the Berlin Wall coming down
- US in Iraq
- US in Afghanistan
- UK when China wiped their ass with the Hong Kong Treaty
Happy International Teachers' Day, Professor Snyder. Knowing is not enough, you need to be able to share that knowledge and you do it with great vigour, wisdom and spirit. Thank you from your 70-year-old online student of the Yale course on Ukraine.
Hello, Elizabeth! We're almost the same age; I turn 69 in about 1-1/2 weeks. I, too, am enjoying being his online student.
BTW, I miss your reports about everything you've been working on. I hope to see a new report soon!
Hello, Rose, how sweet of you to ask! I'll just fill you in on the Ukraine projects (these have become a priority and so I needed to cut back on a number of other projects - both for time and money -, another sad side effect of the war). I'm still running two JustGiving fundraisers from where the money goes to trustworthy Ukrainians helping refugees in Poland. I also contributed to buying a Turkish Bayraktar drone for the Ukrainian army, and surreal as it was to make a donation for such a purpose, I'm glad I did it.
On the Day of Ukrainian Independence, I sent a personal message to each of those hosts who would have entertained me in Kyiv in March this year via airbnb. Some of those hosts are not members any more, but I would like to go and meet the rest next spring when I'm in Hungary and can get to Kyiv without much difficulty. All of them urged me to do so at the time of the "fake" bookings :-).
All my Ukrainian teacher friends from the Laos school-building project are safe, some in the Czech Republic, others in western Ukraine. My best friend in that group sent her son and father ahead to Ternopil and stayed behind under Russian occupation because her mum's mobility is seriously compromised. She lives/lived near Kupyansk, far too close to the Russian border. I was begging her to leave before it would be too late. In the end, the Russians wanted to take away her Ukrainian passport and lock up the rooms that she was renting to teach unless she signed that she sided with Russia. That was the last straw, they got out via Kharkiv, making a hair-raisingly long and dangerous journey. Her best friend, when she heard the fighting getting closer, panicked and got on an evacuation bus to Russia. Her ex-husband is now trying to rescue her, but it's a nightmare, obviously.
P.S. In the school building community of English teachers and learners, we managed to raise the first USD 50k, and our school in a remote Laotian village opened its doors in September :-). We are now raising money for the next school while also supporting Ukraine as best as we can.
Please let me know if you hear anything about the best friend of the woman from Kup'yans'k. I will light a candle for her, and hope with all my heart that she returns safely. I followed the Battle of Kup'yans'k daily, and rejoiced when the town was liberated.
I hope you have a direct line to folks that are making decisions (POTUS)in how we aid and think about Ukraine. Thank you for sharing your insights. Too often the talking heads do the black and white thinking, nuclear devastation or not. Thank you for detailing other outcomes.
Kadyrov is one of the few people that I fear more than Putin. I don't fear that Putin will use a nuclear weapon, but I do fear the new international order that he wants to create. Kadyrov on the other hand; he seems completely mad.
I wish when you are interviewed on the news the reporters were more informed and could ask better questions so you could unlock their fixed notions and share your point of view with a larger public. Thank you.
I used to work for BBC World Service (Hungarian Section). An average interview was 3 minutes, a "long" one was 5-6 minutes. But I find that even longer interviews with Prof Snyder are only scratching the surface because of the mistaken concept of "newsworthiness" (e.g., the discussion of the nuclear threat). The only satisfying experiences where the professor was able to provide both an overview and an analysis have been the webinars with intelligent and compassionate hosts/presenters or discussions with several guest speakers.* If anyone would just sit down and ask 5-6 relevant questions based on this latest piece (topic by topic), or Prof Snyder were to just READ THE TEXT ALOUD, we would be a lot better off. (He is also very good at to-the-point, succinct answers).
A good example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCART2T7Ei4
I agree. I haven't had a television for about 25 years, but from time to time I do watch TV interviews online, and find them for the most part unsatisfactory, for the very reasons you mention. Give me a 50-minute interview with a well-read interviewer who knows how to ask questions and allows the interviewee to speak at length, and I'm happy. Sean Illing's interview of TS on June 13, 2022, is a good example. I was very pleased with it. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vdGhlZXpyYWtsZWluc2hvdw/episode/MmNhNDhlNDQtNTIxYy0xMWVjLWI5MTYtMDM1Y2FiODFhODE5?sa=X&ved=0CAUQkfYCahgKEwj4257nq7r4AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQ0gM
Indeed, that is a great interview enriched by philosophical issues (such as the one about bad ideas, the end of history, the battle of generations, the importance of value-laden stories, etc.) and the fact that a lot of what Timothy Snyder is describing as a possible outcome is emerging in front of our eyes... Very satisfying.
Thank you for the link. I do watch tv.
Thank you. Two interviews I listened to said, Welcome Prof. Snyder historian and author of 20 Lessons on Tyranny. One could tell they hadn’t opened the book or viewed a video as any question related to this would help discuss the issue of the attack on Democracy in Ukraine, here at home in the US and worldwide, As Ukraine is carrying Liberty’s Torch and paying with blood it would expand the conversation. I am just learning. Personally The Road To Unfreedom was pivotal to my mindset now
All conflicts lend themselves to nuances. However, the media coverage of this war is heavily tinted by nuke-fear, which Prof Snyder admits is warranted but not to the exclusion of the thinking of the combatants nor of where they find themselves politically and militarily. No one needs reminding that TS is a historian and that our educational ‘system’ would do well to bring the study of history back into our classrooms beginning in elementary school. The thoughts expressed in this article add much to the on-going conversation about Ukraine’s moment in history.
Thank you for this very insightful piece. Although you don’t quite say it, I think the underlying premise of the piece is that at some point Putin beats a strategic retreat and most likely - although not guaranteed - survives. That sounds plausible to me, but I think it is even more plausible that Putin doesn’t survive. After all, Khrushchev didn’t survive the Cuban Missile Crisis, even though not a shot was fired and not a single fatality was suffered. Since the military opposed Putin’s War from the beginning and needs to avoid, if at all possible, being tagged as the scapegoats for it, the one thing that all the warring factions can probably agree on is that this was Putin’s war, not their own. If that’s true, there will inevitably come a day when Putin’s Kremlin guards decide to stay home and enjoy a leisurely breakfast with their pleasantly surprised wives and children. That will be the morning when Putin’s executioners visit him. All dictatorships are impregnable… until the morning when they are not.
As usual, a brilliant analysis. Thank you!
This makes sense on so many levels and is very helpful, among other things, in focusing on what is indeed the likely outcome rather than the constant dooms day noise from the mainstream media. I sincerely hope and trust that your subscriber base in and around DC is very large!
Very deep and clear (just what I always expect from anything you've written). Thank you!
so grateful for your commentary, and for the ability to (virtually) audit your history of Ukraine lectures at Yale. other outcomes. yes. and just finished Marci's book on the Maidan; which was excellent.
Thank you Dr. Snyder, for helping me think about my freedom. Your formulation of "Essence before Presence" has helped me understand the true meaning of "Give me liberty or give me death." It is calm. It is filled with equanimity. It is strong.
How important is Kadyrov in the larger picture? He shoots his mouth off a lot, but that doesn't make him politically powerful; he's head of a republic with a population of only about 1.5 million. He holds a general's rank in the Russian army but evidently he doesn't fit anywhere in the normal chain of command. What kind/size of forces does he control? I know he had fighters at Kyiv to attempt to wipe out Zelenskyy and other leaders, but they weren't successful, and I assume some, at least, were killed. How much does Putin trust him? Would he ever be able to get his people close to Putin?
If Putin has to fall back on the regular army for survival, he's probably finished. I doubt the army has very nice thoughts about him now. But I don't think he's ever intended to rely on them for his personal safety. Likewise the FSB, whom Putin probably doesn't have very nice thoughts about after it misled him about the Ukrainians. But Putin also has control of National Guard OMON and SOBR units, who among other things provide security for the president's office. According to Wikipedia, they total around 25,000 highly trained members. That ought to be enough to hold the Kremlin against a bandit like Kadyrov.
Putin's mobilization strikes us as shambolic. But Putin remembers that the Red Army had to pull together a defense after being taken by surprise in 1941. That was infinitely more shambolic, but they prevailed in the end. Putin's father was in an NKVD battle police unit, the kind that summarily executed anyone suspected of sabotage, any soldier separated from his unit if he was not carrying written authorization, and political "unreliables" in general. Savage as it was, that policy was eventually effective; the Red Army lost its fear of the Germans. Putin, of course, doesn't have Siberian divisions to fall back on, or a bottomless supply of replacements, or American Lend-Lease. But he believes in Holy Russia, and he knows it has won against long odds before.
another brilliant piece
thank you
Lucid analysis. I fear the Kadyrow militia and the Wagner group might wait for the best opportunity to to operate a political coup d'état and that this might eventually lead to a "civil war" between what is left of regular Russian armed forces and these postmodern "Armagnacs". The question will be if Putin is still free enough to take sides which regular forces or could become a puppet in the hands of the two condottieri.
I believe he already took a side yesterday promoting Kadyrow to the rank of colonel general.