Forgive me, but I am not at the moment optimistic that most Americans would greet a Trump declaration of martial law by doing anything other than turning on the television and watching "American Idol".
Joel, my reply to every one of Tim's questions was "nope": people in South Korea are far better educated on a mass scale than those in the USA and even if their culture encourages blind obedience to authority (which is what the military, I think, was relying on) they're not ignorant or stupid.
It is not only that the Korean people resisted, it's that Korean elected officials - including those of the tyrant's party - put their lives on the line to protect the rule of law. They literally scaled the walls to fulfill their oaths. In contrast, Republicans who hid under their desks on Jan 6 later refused to find Trump guilty during the Senate impeachment trial. Republican appointed justices on the captured Supreme Court have given Trump immunity - derailing the cases against Trump and his insurrectionists.
Right wing extremists have not just captured all three branches of our government - they have corrupted them. It is not only the antidemocratic agenda of the extremist populists and plutocrats, it is the antidemocratic means by which they are instituting and enforcing it. Nominally maintaining the protocols of democracy but hollowing them out to fulfill a ChristoFascist vision - for the purpose of perpetuating the personal benefits of unrepentant bigotry and unconscionable greed at the cost of our shared civil rights.
Let's see whether Republicans give Trump recess appointments. And/or rubber stamps.
When the going gets tough, sending the House home is Mike Johnson's default - and there are odd mechanisms where the House can force the Senate in recess.
Even for self styled (states rights supporting) moderate
Susan Collins, resisting the Gaetz nomination, her office tells me, is a one-off. Collins infamously got snookered by Kavanaugh and touted
the FBI report which was incomplete because Trump had shut it down.
Well stated. Our position is much more dire than South Korea’s. Too many of our total representatives are captured by Trumpism, and the remainder are toothless. Plus, we are fundamentally a violent culture; in a similar situation to SK, we would have shots fired and citizens down.
Except strangely on the storming of Congress on Jan 6th. When shots should have been fired, and massive security forces deployed, nothing happened. A few poor cops were out numbered and left to their own devices by the higher ups.
That was what I was going to say. This is a huge country with all sizes of pockets of resistance. How enough people could gather fast enough to effectively turn aside such an attempted coup would, I believe, be problematic. I just keep seeing in my head the opening scenes of The Handmaids Tale to see how our Democratic script could be flipped almost overnight.
I think we have to reach a tipping point and we have not yet. Martial law might do it- especially about rounding up immigrants. But there are other possibilities. People are still not believing what they hear and they don't pay attention. Trump is not in office. Nothing has changed yet. But my optimism is that there will be a decisive moment when it will hit. I don't think most people want dictatorship.
We will see if we can survive Trump because we are at a pivotal moment. Trump has to be contained. I believe he is out on the gangplank and will try to appease his radicals. It's up to the Congress to contain him and his surrogates.
That people are so unmoved so far is not a good sign in general for our democracy. I don't think people get what's at stake and the need to participate.
The people where I live are so ignorant that they have no clue as to what fascism nor what a dictatorship mean. They still think god has selected trump. They will get their guns and parade around the streets applauding "marshall law" (snark) and hope they will get to kill a few libs. Anything is better than having a (cackling N-word) woman tell them what to do.
The way I see it, when Trump invokes the Insurrection Act, it will only apply in well-known hotbeds of liberalism and not in right-wing areas. MAGATs in Texas and Idaho would be only too happy to see tanks and the 101st Airborne deployed in places like Los Angeles. That would really be "owning the libs".
I'm not sure the hayseed farm boys from east armpit alabama are going to much like the reception they will get, even in their tanks, in parts of New York City or LA. Shit, they're afraid to ride the subway...
New York is one thing, Los Angeles is another. We'll see what happens. The military is obligated to not follow illegal orders no matter who gives them.
The abundance of fire arms and over trained militias requires some attention to detail. I still think it’s well worth acting quickly and in massive numbers. It will be bloody. Americans do not have the muscle memory of the Korean uncles, the affectionate term for elders who lived through the last coup. Americans are confused about what to do and where to go. In fact, many who can afford to are leaving the country.
Our constitutional system leaves it up to individuals to pick and choose democratic participation; we all know this.
The point is, if any of us choose to use protected expression, then that person's choice has meaning for every citizen and may have effect against abuse of power. As messy as resistance and deliberate and public non-compliance may be, 'we the people' are the ones to choose and use protected expression to prevent abuse of power.
The history of resistance to abuse suggests that, given something to resist for, resistance is chosen by more and more once it is initiated. Prof Snyder has so many times provided his own views and many historic examples of chosen resistance in order to defend such a 'something'; others have done likewise.
Indeed, it is a choice. However, my original comment expressed that I believe way too many of us will choose to do nothing, at least initially. In my experience, very few Americans "see the light", but only react when they "feel the heat".
As with all things, time will tell. Thanks for your thoughtful response.
The perspective which I am describing is a perspective on personal agency and on personal and official responsibility and accountability. It only takes one or a few citizens to, legally and in support of the Constitution, consciously move resistance from public expression of opposition to working toward legal determination of accountability for misuse of power.
This view is based on optimism founded on pursuing improved understanding of common interests and interest-based outcomes; the inclusive democratic outlook for reasoned rule of law political society that the Constitution provides an adaptable base for lends itself to democratic reforms. While Americans are currently extremely politically polarized, Americans have no factual evidence that opposing perspectives [largely abstractly grounded] make pursuing common or shared interests less real or less vitally important. Ask any young person about how real and important consciously choosing a democratic future and better future is.
I could be incorrect, but I read this essay by Prof Snyder as pointing clearly to the civilian and legislator's obligations to make opposition an explicit and constitutional statement of non-compliance because of official abuse of power. This is what proceeded in S Korea, and it is an example of public and official counter-action restrained only by the constitutional and legal procedure, which make both sense and is the rule of law norm. It was the rule of law which was actively defended when the public and the officials who acted to oppose the President's declaration and which caused the President to reverse his decision and attempt formal apology.
As I see it, our job is to actively do rule of law maintenance and support work, no matter what form of bending or breaking of it that the Trump administration attempts. Ditto bending or breaking at a State level. Formal upholding of the rule of law will require strict and resolute, well-informed and prepared rule of law and constitutional choices and actions by us and by government officials in support of 'we the people' and our constitutional system.
If most Americans prefer to watch TV or be witness to what plays out, then that is that.
The active support of rule of law constitutional governance must, in the long run, be the norm in public shaping of legislation, as well. This shaping of much needed legislation is long overdue. We currently have not any well thought through and publicly supported domestic policy in most areas of social human endeavor. The next four years will be difficult ones in which to manage the passing of such, but it can be the public's moment for scoping it out among ourselves and finding candidates for congressional office who are up to the job of writing into law and passing these laws.
To close, I'll again mention that, from my perspective, we Americans have excellent and relevant examples of candid and common sense interpretation of Constitution and law, including in respect of political policy in relationship to public opinion in work done by the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg and by scholars [teachers and writers, too] such as Prof Ahkil Reed Amar. If we used the lessons presented by these two, and for a moment set aside lessons that others provide that are instructive and useful, we could initiate information-seeking discussions among most Americans that would provide candid statements of basic interests which form the core of making responsible choices and doing responsible actions to care for themselves, their families and to contribute in their community to a better shared future. This is the stuff that forms useful democratic policy, which policy works in support of people's responsible choices. This is the manner of creating a social, civil society of citizens who choose to maximize use of voluntary agreement and agreement-based cooperation and who cooperatively work to manage and resolve differences of views [promote reasoned tolerance and reasoned conflict avoidance].
He doesn’t have to declare martial law to impose dictatorship if the Congress is allowing it. If they do then I am willing to bet there will be uproar.
Thank you for getting this out so fast! South Korea was a dress rehearsal for what is almost certain to come to the US. However, I fear that not enough will be done quickly enough to stop that here. Will the right have the backbone to say no? After all, if they set the precedent it can be done to them. Will the MAGA voters who are more emotion than reality care enough to stop it or will they join in and support it?
We live in dangerous times and while South Korea gives me hope, I do not see the same strong civil society here.
You are absolutely right. In Dr. Bandy X. Lee's column today, she makes the distinction between "atomized" vs. "collective" cultures. Korea is an example of the collective culture; the U.S. is an example of an atomized culture. She makes the point that it is far easier for a collective culture to rise as one in protest to a coup d'etat than it is for a culture such as our own.
You bring up a great point on the homogeneity of society in South Korea. However, the direct comparison is the ability of a large segment of the population to stand its ground which Trump thinks will not happen. That does not require homogeneity but courage. South Koreans had courage. I fear many lack that in the US.
Your words are so welcome to me to hear. What are you thoughts about 90% of Koreans opposed to their dictator v. only around 60% of our nation? (Perhaps you want to correct my statistics. I hope I'm wrong!)
What’s happening in America is the end game of a decades-long conservative war on government and democracy. This is the point where we find out if the frog actually will jump out of the boiling pot.
Yes, as I review the party lines since WWII, it’s pretty consistent anti-government rhetoric from the Rs. And clearly, the Ds didn’t take it seriously enough to rein it in along the way. Constant, diligent defense of our democracy has been clearly lacking. Hopefully we are awake now (dare I say Woke?) and still have time to reset.
I’ve been asking myself the same question. When 37% of the population couldn’t even bother to vote, and another 33% believing in whatever Trump does, how many of the rest of us would take to the streets like they did in South Korea? How many are even 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲 that this is even happening in South Korea? I want to have faith in my fellow Americans, but I’m definitely struggling with that.
The failure of the SK coup only points out the fragility of the US system, which at the moment has no safeguards: it has a compliant press and media, compliant federal bureaucracies, a supportive FBI and CIA, a compliant Supreme Court and oligarchy: there is nothing to stand in the way of a military dictatorship. Most important of all, it has a historically submissive and passive citizenry. I see no signs that there is a line in the sand for even the left of centre. One awaits a MLK, but the hope that something will save the US, and the West, is growing dim.
And a younger generation that is completely tuned out: I asked my university students at a very highly ranked university if they knew what was happening in 🇬🇪 Georgia and only one out of a class of some 40 students had even heard vaguely about the protests and issues at stake. They don’t read or listen to or watch the news and seem to be going la la la. Our fault no doubt as adults. It is very disturbing.
Not the sense I got from campus demonstrations and encampments just a few months ago- ? Wesleyan? With some added generosity of spirit, the activism is there.
Not wrong of us to speak up, and it’s much easier to imagine a sequence of unwelcome events in our own government, and to use those insights to work on, well, call it consciousness-raising (an expanded view of where insights might lie, basically)— much easier to do all this in regards to our own communities, our own polity, as opposed to communities and polities half a world away. Or not? YMMV.
This is one of the most significant posts in American discussion today. There is only one action that Trump could take that would ruin the American dream forever - trying to seize government. I hope that the Dems get their act together very quickly, and select a leader that people can rally behind. The South Koreans had that advantage...we are yet to put that player onto the field.
That’s so true. How many Democrats even know who the party leader was during Kamala’s candidacy? They need someone with a known name and a public presence that captures our attentions and motivates us to move. Obama would be awesome… lol
I like him, too, but it seems a lot of people don’t. Maybe it’s because at first he comes off like the slick politician, not really authentic. I think the more you listen to him, though, the more he grows on you. But you know how those first impressions can stick. It’s easier to walk away and keep the impression than it is to listen for a bit and see what he might have to say.
We need age limits on party leadership. Can you imagine Charles Schumer or Mitch McConnell scaling a fence and battling military forces with fire extinguishers and whatever comes to hand? We are not S. Korea.
After reading substacks, the top of my list was to call my red Senators (Graham and Scott) to voice strong opposition to Patel. Your sample letter is powerful, and your thoughtfulness in making accessible the names of all Senators is very helpful. Thank you so much for doing this. I will pass along your draft letter to others, if that's OK with you.
Again, I come back to the financial sector. This is really important to Trump and the other oligarchs. If the markets start to react negatively to the invocation of the Insurrection Act and we have general instability throughout the US economy, will Trump and his allies pull back? Dr. Snyder names the Wall Street Journal as an important media source. This seems right given the importance of money/wealth under the Trump regime. I think back to one of Musk's statements a couple of months ago saying we would "all" have to suffer some in the beginning..." (paraphrasing of course) maybe this means an early market crash with those in the know pulling out just in the nick of time while those of us schmucks with our pensions invested in the US stock market left out to dry. I know that's coming from a place of privilege - to have a pension - but those relying on government programs like Medicaid, SNAP, Medicare, and Social Security will of course be out of luck as well.
There is zero doubt in me now, the root issue is wealth inequality. That is the root of the American Cancer, now in stage 3/4. I’m a recent lymphoma survivor. With my situation it was simple: RCHOP chemo asap or die very soon. Hmmm…lemmethinkaboutitOK!
Quote from Heather Cox Richardson on her substack today, "Yesterday on the Fox News Channel, Representative Richard McCormick (R-GA) suggested: "We're gonna have to have some hard decisions. We're gonna have to bring the Democrats to talk about Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare. There's hundreds of billions of dollars to be saved .." I know there has been talk about this for a long time but at this point I really believe it's going to happen. I look for at least an increase in the retirement age to 70 to collect full Social Security benefits.
'Dictators for a Day' echoes Trump's promise on his first day as president as well as Yoon Suk Yeol invoking martial law in South Korea. In recognition of both, Timothy Snyder raised the question:
'The most important lesson applies to all citizens. It is easy to put the responsibility on the military, the legislators, the press. But the crucial element in South Korea was the reaction of citizens themselves. This involves not just members of political parties or trade unions -- although these were very important. It was more the general sense throughout the country that this is not possible here, that we are not this kind of society, that we will have a republic and not a dictatorship. Do Americans have those reflexes?'
That is the question. An analysis by the Environmental Voter Project shows that 85.9 million eligible voters skipped the 2024 general election. Most Americans mistrust the government. Trump won the election by about 1 and a half percentage points, slim, but he won the majority of those voting. Why are so many Americans discouraged? Who are the leaders to support the recovery of Democracy in the U.S.?
Dear Dr. Snyder. In my study of history, in order for the overthrow of a government to be "successful" a few items need to be checked off.
1. An event that is perceived to be a threat, either real, imagined, or false flag, must occur
2. The leadership of the overthrow must include a substantial element of the military and law
enforcement.
3. An outcry for immediate action must ensue, eliminating deliberative channels that exist.
4. The realization that a minority can accomplish the overthrow.
5. Apathy of the population for acceptance.
I'm enthralled by the actions taken by the populations of South Korea and Ukraine to fight for their democracies. These are examples of what the American citizenship must do to protect ours.
Or start a war. In his speech announcing the beginning of WW 2, Hitler claimed that Polish troops had crossed the border into Germany. And, of course, there were the phantom WMD's that W used to justify invading Iraq.
Everything is hypothetical until you are staring down the reality of an overt dictatorial move. The 2024 election turned on the slimmest margin. I think the opposition to a threatening move by Trump will be met by a fierce full throated roar from we the people. I served in the Navy and swore an oath to protect and defend the constitution, same as those serving today. I hope the majority of Americans feel as I do and will step up. I hope our military leaders will not obey an unlawful order. We shall see.
I suspect that one of the main reasons for what 'We the People’ have just done in South Korea is their having for so long lived next door to one of the most cruel and repressive societies on earth. Unfortunately Americans do not have that object lesson next door.
At least I don’t share walls anymore. A neighbor sheepishly let me know one day when I got home from work that he wasn’t going to loan a certain person his extension ladder anymore. He didn’t get inside. The windows were locked and he didn’t want to break glass.
Instead he loosened a panel of my stockade fence to use as a gate so he could invade my backyard and leave the front gate wide open. Then he had a bon fire in his backyard using the pickets from my fence as fuel. While I was at work one of his teenage minions directed traffic over my front yard tearing up the lawn, and etc. I was determined to grind him down. The kid’s parents were busted for abandoning him and moving to another state. The main perp was warned by the police not to speak to me. He tried to recruit against me. He eventually got booted by his scummy landlord when he didn’t pay rent —over ten years later.
Far right blend with black and gold insignia. I think the ideology was in line with antisocial personality disorder and virtuoso level narcissism. For over a decade I lived in an uncomfortable detente with occasional police intervention. He didn’t pay rent during covid and miscalculated his way out of the situation. Pranked the neighborhood on the way out. He would have been a nuisance, to put it mildly, even if the political climate weren’t as it is. The ideology fit the personality
Politicians and realtors don’t seem to mind if homeowners are bullied into moving. It contributes to churn. We need to get the money out of politics. Lobbyists pamper politicians. The so called necessity of LLCs was mansplained to me by my NYS assembly member’s staff. I gave him my view of what’s going on in the neighborhoods. We need new rules and better people in government. I’m old, so my hope is with the younger generations. Simple homeowners like me are merely marks for money grubbing lobbyists and stupid old
Never been a homeowner, but I did rent the ground floor of a brownstone for twenty years in Park Slope, Brooklyn next door on one side to a mother and her two daughters who spent most of their at-home time screaming at each other, never shoveled their walk in the winter, and once nearly flooded me out when their water-pipes broke. On the other side was a curious fellow who had had what I used to refer to as the Hanging Gardens of Babylon complete with creek and pond built in his backyard, a situation which only fed the mosquito population in the summer. His watering system regularly soaked my sun-drying laundry until we finally had it out one memorable afternoon. Otherwise it was an admirable situation except during recess at the elementary school across the street.
The National Guard were called during the 2021 storming of the United States Capitol, but the Insurrection Act was not invoked. 🥷🏻 #Trump will pardon J6 traitors and insurrectionists.
They will become Trump's personal militia, like the SS started out to be. (In Argentina, which also is being run by an extreme Right winger, Javier Milei, some of his supporters have formed an armed militia. (Milei and Musk have been bros for some time now....)
In order to influence political attitudes, particularly in the United States Senate which is our last bulwark against authoritarianism, a concerted effort will be required. Although my concern for Ukraine is a bit of an aside from the topic of martial law, I felt it necessary to contact my US Senator. We should all do the same. Here is what I wrote
"December 4, 2024
The Honorable Alex Padilla United States Senator
331 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
Dear Senator Padilla,
Ukraine is an inflection point which will determine either our continued economic success or future financial failure. Donald Trump has stated that Russia can do whatever it wants with Ukraine. Putin's taking Ukraine will cause irreparable damage to the US economy and our future in a very personal way. Millions of Americans will be worse off if Ukraine falls. Why? Because China is watching the outcome of Putin's war. Putin’s success will embolden China to conquer Taiwan. In so doing, the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping will own nearly all the production of the most important computer chips on the planet. Consider the conclusions of this report-
U.S. EXPOSURE TO THE TAIWANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER SERIES Working Paper 2023–11–A
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION 500 E Street SW
Washington, DC 20436 November 2023
"Around 92 percent of the world’s most advanced chip manufacturing capacity is located in Taiwan. Any disruptions to Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing—whether caused by pandemics, natural disasters such as typhoons or earthquakes, power or water shortages, factory shutdowns, or international conflict—would potentially have large impacts on global semiconductor supply."
In your position of responsibility to provide Advice and Consent to the President-elect, should Taiwan be considered in the same light that Trump views Ukraine? Our most effective weapons, including fighter jets and missiles, depend heavily upon these computer chips. If China conquers Taiwan and acquires the information and complex proprietary knowledge necessary to produce these essential pieces of military hardware, how long do you think the US will last as a major world power? If Trump fails on Ukraine, we might as well just give Taiwan to Xi. The Indo- Pacific will be his and gone from US influence. Trade will be choked off at the Mallaca Strait in Southeast Asia. The US dollar will fade as the foundation of international currency. Military hardware will not be the only casualty of a CCP conquest of Taiwan. Massive quantities of lower complexity computer chips go into everyday household items. Hairdryers for ladies have an integrated chip that allows different airflow rates and temperatures. When hairdryers cost
$1000 due to a chip shortage, what will the voting citizenry think? They may not care much about F-35s and Patriot missiles, but hairdryers? Eggs and gasoline will pale in comparison.
You probably already know more about this than I do. However, I would like you to tell me to whom I should write on the Republican side of the US Senate to convey my concerns. And please don't pull a Trump maneuver and figure that we can stand back and let the other political party own this failure. It will then be too late.
I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt very much that more than a few Republicans in Congress would oppose Trump's using the Insurrection Act to implement his political policies. Nor would they oppose a martial law declaration.
Forgive me, but I am not at the moment optimistic that most Americans would greet a Trump declaration of martial law by doing anything other than turning on the television and watching "American Idol".
Would anyone care to argue with me?
Joel, my reply to every one of Tim's questions was "nope": people in South Korea are far better educated on a mass scale than those in the USA and even if their culture encourages blind obedience to authority (which is what the military, I think, was relying on) they're not ignorant or stupid.
And South Korea has a much smaller, more homogeneous society. It’s not exactly applicable to the U.S. in the big picture.
It is not only that the Korean people resisted, it's that Korean elected officials - including those of the tyrant's party - put their lives on the line to protect the rule of law. They literally scaled the walls to fulfill their oaths. In contrast, Republicans who hid under their desks on Jan 6 later refused to find Trump guilty during the Senate impeachment trial. Republican appointed justices on the captured Supreme Court have given Trump immunity - derailing the cases against Trump and his insurrectionists.
Right wing extremists have not just captured all three branches of our government - they have corrupted them. It is not only the antidemocratic agenda of the extremist populists and plutocrats, it is the antidemocratic means by which they are instituting and enforcing it. Nominally maintaining the protocols of democracy but hollowing them out to fulfill a ChristoFascist vision - for the purpose of perpetuating the personal benefits of unrepentant bigotry and unconscionable greed at the cost of our shared civil rights.
The prospect of what members of Congress may do in an American version of Yoon’s declaration is as scary as the prospect of that declaration itself.
Let's see whether Republicans give Trump recess appointments. And/or rubber stamps.
When the going gets tough, sending the House home is Mike Johnson's default - and there are odd mechanisms where the House can force the Senate in recess.
Even for self styled (states rights supporting) moderate
Susan Collins, resisting the Gaetz nomination, her office tells me, is a one-off. Collins infamously got snookered by Kavanaugh and touted
the FBI report which was incomplete because Trump had shut it down.
Don't mention Susan Collins, please.
Well stated. Our position is much more dire than South Korea’s. Too many of our total representatives are captured by Trumpism, and the remainder are toothless. Plus, we are fundamentally a violent culture; in a similar situation to SK, we would have shots fired and citizens down.
Except strangely on the storming of Congress on Jan 6th. When shots should have been fired, and massive security forces deployed, nothing happened. A few poor cops were out numbered and left to their own devices by the higher ups.
That was what I was going to say. This is a huge country with all sizes of pockets of resistance. How enough people could gather fast enough to effectively turn aside such an attempted coup would, I believe, be problematic. I just keep seeing in my head the opening scenes of The Handmaids Tale to see how our Democratic script could be flipped almost overnight.
Very good point.
Hi Joel,
I think we have to reach a tipping point and we have not yet. Martial law might do it- especially about rounding up immigrants. But there are other possibilities. People are still not believing what they hear and they don't pay attention. Trump is not in office. Nothing has changed yet. But my optimism is that there will be a decisive moment when it will hit. I don't think most people want dictatorship.
We will see if we can survive Trump because we are at a pivotal moment. Trump has to be contained. I believe he is out on the gangplank and will try to appease his radicals. It's up to the Congress to contain him and his surrogates.
That people are so unmoved so far is not a good sign in general for our democracy. I don't think people get what's at stake and the need to participate.
The people where I live are so ignorant that they have no clue as to what fascism nor what a dictatorship mean. They still think god has selected trump. They will get their guns and parade around the streets applauding "marshall law" (snark) and hope they will get to kill a few libs. Anything is better than having a (cackling N-word) woman tell them what to do.
Very troubling. This is what I fear..that there are more people who think like this ( if you call it thinking) that we know.
What’s woke but a substitute for the n word.
Wrong question.
You are an American.
So the question should be - would you do as South Korean citizens did?
Yes, even the Bluesky 'intellectuals' are exchanging recipes and promoting their substacks.
I don’t exchange recipes and promote Substack on my Bluesky account, and don’t follow anybody who does. 😸 #TrustWomen
The way I see it, when Trump invokes the Insurrection Act, it will only apply in well-known hotbeds of liberalism and not in right-wing areas. MAGATs in Texas and Idaho would be only too happy to see tanks and the 101st Airborne deployed in places like Los Angeles. That would really be "owning the libs".
I'm not sure the hayseed farm boys from east armpit alabama are going to much like the reception they will get, even in their tanks, in parts of New York City or LA. Shit, they're afraid to ride the subway...
New York is one thing, Los Angeles is another. We'll see what happens. The military is obligated to not follow illegal orders no matter who gives them.
The governors have plans. There will be leadership and measures
The abundance of fire arms and over trained militias requires some attention to detail. I still think it’s well worth acting quickly and in massive numbers. It will be bloody. Americans do not have the muscle memory of the Korean uncles, the affectionate term for elders who lived through the last coup. Americans are confused about what to do and where to go. In fact, many who can afford to are leaving the country.
Thanks for the perspective, Mr Parkes.
Our constitutional system leaves it up to individuals to pick and choose democratic participation; we all know this.
The point is, if any of us choose to use protected expression, then that person's choice has meaning for every citizen and may have effect against abuse of power. As messy as resistance and deliberate and public non-compliance may be, 'we the people' are the ones to choose and use protected expression to prevent abuse of power.
The history of resistance to abuse suggests that, given something to resist for, resistance is chosen by more and more once it is initiated. Prof Snyder has so many times provided his own views and many historic examples of chosen resistance in order to defend such a 'something'; others have done likewise.
Who needs to argue it? It is a choice.
Hi, Bob -
Indeed, it is a choice. However, my original comment expressed that I believe way too many of us will choose to do nothing, at least initially. In my experience, very few Americans "see the light", but only react when they "feel the heat".
As with all things, time will tell. Thanks for your thoughtful response.
The perspective which I am describing is a perspective on personal agency and on personal and official responsibility and accountability. It only takes one or a few citizens to, legally and in support of the Constitution, consciously move resistance from public expression of opposition to working toward legal determination of accountability for misuse of power.
This view is based on optimism founded on pursuing improved understanding of common interests and interest-based outcomes; the inclusive democratic outlook for reasoned rule of law political society that the Constitution provides an adaptable base for lends itself to democratic reforms. While Americans are currently extremely politically polarized, Americans have no factual evidence that opposing perspectives [largely abstractly grounded] make pursuing common or shared interests less real or less vitally important. Ask any young person about how real and important consciously choosing a democratic future and better future is.
I could be incorrect, but I read this essay by Prof Snyder as pointing clearly to the civilian and legislator's obligations to make opposition an explicit and constitutional statement of non-compliance because of official abuse of power. This is what proceeded in S Korea, and it is an example of public and official counter-action restrained only by the constitutional and legal procedure, which make both sense and is the rule of law norm. It was the rule of law which was actively defended when the public and the officials who acted to oppose the President's declaration and which caused the President to reverse his decision and attempt formal apology.
As I see it, our job is to actively do rule of law maintenance and support work, no matter what form of bending or breaking of it that the Trump administration attempts. Ditto bending or breaking at a State level. Formal upholding of the rule of law will require strict and resolute, well-informed and prepared rule of law and constitutional choices and actions by us and by government officials in support of 'we the people' and our constitutional system.
If most Americans prefer to watch TV or be witness to what plays out, then that is that.
The active support of rule of law constitutional governance must, in the long run, be the norm in public shaping of legislation, as well. This shaping of much needed legislation is long overdue. We currently have not any well thought through and publicly supported domestic policy in most areas of social human endeavor. The next four years will be difficult ones in which to manage the passing of such, but it can be the public's moment for scoping it out among ourselves and finding candidates for congressional office who are up to the job of writing into law and passing these laws.
To close, I'll again mention that, from my perspective, we Americans have excellent and relevant examples of candid and common sense interpretation of Constitution and law, including in respect of political policy in relationship to public opinion in work done by the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg and by scholars [teachers and writers, too] such as Prof Ahkil Reed Amar. If we used the lessons presented by these two, and for a moment set aside lessons that others provide that are instructive and useful, we could initiate information-seeking discussions among most Americans that would provide candid statements of basic interests which form the core of making responsible choices and doing responsible actions to care for themselves, their families and to contribute in their community to a better shared future. This is the stuff that forms useful democratic policy, which policy works in support of people's responsible choices. This is the manner of creating a social, civil society of citizens who choose to maximize use of voluntary agreement and agreement-based cooperation and who cooperatively work to manage and resolve differences of views [promote reasoned tolerance and reasoned conflict avoidance].
I’m betting it won’t happen. Why would it? He didn’t declare martial law last time.
South Korea is pretty new democracy compared to the US.
Last time there were adults in the room. Next time there won't be. I don't share your confidence, but hope you're correct.
He doesn’t have to declare martial law to impose dictatorship if the Congress is allowing it. If they do then I am willing to bet there will be uproar.
Thank you for getting this out so fast! South Korea was a dress rehearsal for what is almost certain to come to the US. However, I fear that not enough will be done quickly enough to stop that here. Will the right have the backbone to say no? After all, if they set the precedent it can be done to them. Will the MAGA voters who are more emotion than reality care enough to stop it or will they join in and support it?
We live in dangerous times and while South Korea gives me hope, I do not see the same strong civil society here.
As I wrote above, South Korea has a tiny population that is extremely homogeneous. The U.S. is huge and fractious. It’s not a direct comparison.
You are absolutely right. In Dr. Bandy X. Lee's column today, she makes the distinction between "atomized" vs. "collective" cultures. Korea is an example of the collective culture; the U.S. is an example of an atomized culture. She makes the point that it is far easier for a collective culture to rise as one in protest to a coup d'etat than it is for a culture such as our own.
Right.
You bring up a great point on the homogeneity of society in South Korea. However, the direct comparison is the ability of a large segment of the population to stand its ground which Trump thinks will not happen. That does not require homogeneity but courage. South Koreans had courage. I fear many lack that in the US.
Your words are so welcome to me to hear. What are you thoughts about 90% of Koreans opposed to their dictator v. only around 60% of our nation? (Perhaps you want to correct my statistics. I hope I'm wrong!)
What’s happening in America is the end game of a decades-long conservative war on government and democracy. This is the point where we find out if the frog actually will jump out of the boiling pot.
Yes, as I review the party lines since WWII, it’s pretty consistent anti-government rhetoric from the Rs. And clearly, the Ds didn’t take it seriously enough to rein it in along the way. Constant, diligent defense of our democracy has been clearly lacking. Hopefully we are awake now (dare I say Woke?) and still have time to reset.
I’ve been asking myself the same question. When 37% of the population couldn’t even bother to vote, and another 33% believing in whatever Trump does, how many of the rest of us would take to the streets like they did in South Korea? How many are even 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲 that this is even happening in South Korea? I want to have faith in my fellow Americans, but I’m definitely struggling with that.
It's this that I am anticipating, and I will NOT OBEY IN ADVANCE nor later. I have my plan in place for now...I think I am prepared. But we'll see.
Hey Kash, maybe we'll come after you? You can probably outrun me...but we have younger ones too. Watch out whom you threaten my boy.
This is the most important question of all.
The failure of the SK coup only points out the fragility of the US system, which at the moment has no safeguards: it has a compliant press and media, compliant federal bureaucracies, a supportive FBI and CIA, a compliant Supreme Court and oligarchy: there is nothing to stand in the way of a military dictatorship. Most important of all, it has a historically submissive and passive citizenry. I see no signs that there is a line in the sand for even the left of centre. One awaits a MLK, but the hope that something will save the US, and the West, is growing dim.
And a younger generation that is completely tuned out: I asked my university students at a very highly ranked university if they knew what was happening in 🇬🇪 Georgia and only one out of a class of some 40 students had even heard vaguely about the protests and issues at stake. They don’t read or listen to or watch the news and seem to be going la la la. Our fault no doubt as adults. It is very disturbing.
Not the sense I got from campus demonstrations and encampments just a few months ago- ? Wesleyan? With some added generosity of spirit, the activism is there.
But even the activists seem ill-informed and narcissistic.
Not wrong of us to speak up, and it’s much easier to imagine a sequence of unwelcome events in our own government, and to use those insights to work on, well, call it consciousness-raising (an expanded view of where insights might lie, basically)— much easier to do all this in regards to our own communities, our own polity, as opposed to communities and polities half a world away. Or not? YMMV.
That is a good point and the horror of Gaza has generated interest but in my experience students remain ignorant and uninterested in world affairs.
Remember, remember always, that all of us, and you and I especially, are descended from immigrants and revolutionists 🇺🇸 FDR
This is one of the most significant posts in American discussion today. There is only one action that Trump could take that would ruin the American dream forever - trying to seize government. I hope that the Dems get their act together very quickly, and select a leader that people can rally behind. The South Koreans had that advantage...we are yet to put that player onto the field.
That’s so true. How many Democrats even know who the party leader was during Kamala’s candidacy? They need someone with a known name and a public presence that captures our attentions and motivates us to move. Obama would be awesome… lol
Obama...hadn't thought of that! Very cool. Michele?
Honestly, I’d take either one!
Gavin Newsom?
I like him, but he’s a very divisive figurehead. Not intentionally.
I like him, too, but it seems a lot of people don’t. Maybe it’s because at first he comes off like the slick politician, not really authentic. I think the more you listen to him, though, the more he grows on you. But you know how those first impressions can stick. It’s easier to walk away and keep the impression than it is to listen for a bit and see what he might have to say.
Oh yes...I love him...
We need age limits on party leadership. Can you imagine Charles Schumer or Mitch McConnell scaling a fence and battling military forces with fire extinguishers and whatever comes to hand? We are not S. Korea.
We are just as susceptible to losing our democracy. Much depends on the backbone in the senate. Write the senators to block nomination abominations. Here is a draft letter. https://open.substack.com/pub/hotbuttons/p/nomination-abominations?r=3m1bs&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
After reading substacks, the top of my list was to call my red Senators (Graham and Scott) to voice strong opposition to Patel. Your sample letter is powerful, and your thoughtfulness in making accessible the names of all Senators is very helpful. Thank you so much for doing this. I will pass along your draft letter to others, if that's OK with you.
I have Tommy Tuberville and Katie Britt. My wife has hidden my guns as she fears I might...I dunno.
Lawsie! I think you are actually in worse shape that I am! (At least you have Joyce Vance, in case that helps?)
I love her to death. And Jess Piper.
I'm not finding much on Jess. Who is she?
Please share all over the place. Thank you!
Will do!
Thank you, Carl. I appreciate you for sharing the letter.
Draft letter to your senators included in this link:
https://bit.ly/3ZCJzyy
Practice corporeal politics. -On Tyranny
It’s amazing to see how Dr Snyder’s book examples demonstrate how resistance works in the real world.
Be ready to protest when democracy and fellow citizens need you most! Way to go South Korea!
And don’t rule out passive resistance, like a consumer spending strike, or ultimately a national worker strike.
Again, I come back to the financial sector. This is really important to Trump and the other oligarchs. If the markets start to react negatively to the invocation of the Insurrection Act and we have general instability throughout the US economy, will Trump and his allies pull back? Dr. Snyder names the Wall Street Journal as an important media source. This seems right given the importance of money/wealth under the Trump regime. I think back to one of Musk's statements a couple of months ago saying we would "all" have to suffer some in the beginning..." (paraphrasing of course) maybe this means an early market crash with those in the know pulling out just in the nick of time while those of us schmucks with our pensions invested in the US stock market left out to dry. I know that's coming from a place of privilege - to have a pension - but those relying on government programs like Medicaid, SNAP, Medicare, and Social Security will of course be out of luck as well.
There is zero doubt in me now, the root issue is wealth inequality. That is the root of the American Cancer, now in stage 3/4. I’m a recent lymphoma survivor. With my situation it was simple: RCHOP chemo asap or die very soon. Hmmm…lemmethinkaboutitOK!
I doubt those programs will be touched. I read the WSJ every day and I don’t see the fear of so many on this Substack.
Quote from Heather Cox Richardson on her substack today, "Yesterday on the Fox News Channel, Representative Richard McCormick (R-GA) suggested: "We're gonna have to have some hard decisions. We're gonna have to bring the Democrats to talk about Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare. There's hundreds of billions of dollars to be saved .." I know there has been talk about this for a long time but at this point I really believe it's going to happen. I look for at least an increase in the retirement age to 70 to collect full Social Security benefits.
'Dictators for a Day' echoes Trump's promise on his first day as president as well as Yoon Suk Yeol invoking martial law in South Korea. In recognition of both, Timothy Snyder raised the question:
'The most important lesson applies to all citizens. It is easy to put the responsibility on the military, the legislators, the press. But the crucial element in South Korea was the reaction of citizens themselves. This involves not just members of political parties or trade unions -- although these were very important. It was more the general sense throughout the country that this is not possible here, that we are not this kind of society, that we will have a republic and not a dictatorship. Do Americans have those reflexes?'
That is the question. An analysis by the Environmental Voter Project shows that 85.9 million eligible voters skipped the 2024 general election. Most Americans mistrust the government. Trump won the election by about 1 and a half percentage points, slim, but he won the majority of those voting. Why are so many Americans discouraged? Who are the leaders to support the recovery of Democracy in the U.S.?
Dear Dr. Snyder. In my study of history, in order for the overthrow of a government to be "successful" a few items need to be checked off.
1. An event that is perceived to be a threat, either real, imagined, or false flag, must occur
2. The leadership of the overthrow must include a substantial element of the military and law
enforcement.
3. An outcry for immediate action must ensue, eliminating deliberative channels that exist.
4. The realization that a minority can accomplish the overthrow.
5. Apathy of the population for acceptance.
I'm enthralled by the actions taken by the populations of South Korea and Ukraine to fight for their democracies. These are examples of what the American citizenship must do to protect ours.
Struggle. Organize. Resist. Basta!!
Or start a war. In his speech announcing the beginning of WW 2, Hitler claimed that Polish troops had crossed the border into Germany. And, of course, there were the phantom WMD's that W used to justify invading Iraq.
Everything is hypothetical until you are staring down the reality of an overt dictatorial move. The 2024 election turned on the slimmest margin. I think the opposition to a threatening move by Trump will be met by a fierce full throated roar from we the people. I served in the Navy and swore an oath to protect and defend the constitution, same as those serving today. I hope the majority of Americans feel as I do and will step up. I hope our military leaders will not obey an unlawful order. We shall see.
I suspect that one of the main reasons for what 'We the People’ have just done in South Korea is their having for so long lived next door to one of the most cruel and repressive societies on earth. Unfortunately Americans do not have that object lesson next door.
Having literally lived next door to extremists , I have to say some of us have known for a long time exactly what we don’t want
I note you have been careful not to specify what ‘flavor’ of extremism you are referring to.
At least I don’t share walls anymore. A neighbor sheepishly let me know one day when I got home from work that he wasn’t going to loan a certain person his extension ladder anymore. He didn’t get inside. The windows were locked and he didn’t want to break glass.
Instead he loosened a panel of my stockade fence to use as a gate so he could invade my backyard and leave the front gate wide open. Then he had a bon fire in his backyard using the pickets from my fence as fuel. While I was at work one of his teenage minions directed traffic over my front yard tearing up the lawn, and etc. I was determined to grind him down. The kid’s parents were busted for abandoning him and moving to another state. The main perp was warned by the police not to speak to me. He tried to recruit against me. He eventually got booted by his scummy landlord when he didn’t pay rent —over ten years later.
Neighbors!
Far right blend with black and gold insignia. I think the ideology was in line with antisocial personality disorder and virtuoso level narcissism. For over a decade I lived in an uncomfortable detente with occasional police intervention. He didn’t pay rent during covid and miscalculated his way out of the situation. Pranked the neighborhood on the way out. He would have been a nuisance, to put it mildly, even if the political climate weren’t as it is. The ideology fit the personality
Got it. Not quite in the same league as Kim il Sung and his kid, but I see your point.
Politicians and realtors don’t seem to mind if homeowners are bullied into moving. It contributes to churn. We need to get the money out of politics. Lobbyists pamper politicians. The so called necessity of LLCs was mansplained to me by my NYS assembly member’s staff. I gave him my view of what’s going on in the neighborhoods. We need new rules and better people in government. I’m old, so my hope is with the younger generations. Simple homeowners like me are merely marks for money grubbing lobbyists and stupid old
Never been a homeowner, but I did rent the ground floor of a brownstone for twenty years in Park Slope, Brooklyn next door on one side to a mother and her two daughters who spent most of their at-home time screaming at each other, never shoveled their walk in the winter, and once nearly flooded me out when their water-pipes broke. On the other side was a curious fellow who had had what I used to refer to as the Hanging Gardens of Babylon complete with creek and pond built in his backyard, a situation which only fed the mosquito population in the summer. His watering system regularly soaked my sun-drying laundry until we finally had it out one memorable afternoon. Otherwise it was an admirable situation except during recess at the elementary school across the street.
Spell check substituted old for politicians. One day I will discover how to release myself from the tyranny of spellcheck
The National Guard were called during the 2021 storming of the United States Capitol, but the Insurrection Act was not invoked. 🥷🏻 #Trump will pardon J6 traitors and insurrectionists.
Yuck. I think u are right. J6 pardons will empower the proud boys and militia movements. Violence will result. Eggs and gas will not be cheaper.
They will become Trump's personal militia, like the SS started out to be. (In Argentina, which also is being run by an extreme Right winger, Javier Milei, some of his supporters have formed an armed militia. (Milei and Musk have been bros for some time now....)
I’ve been predicting that when Trump pardons Enrique Tarrio he will end up leading a Trumpist Brown Shirt brigade.
No doubt.
Krystalnacht coming soon…. Be Ready to protest.
BirdFlu means higher egg prices and gas is already cheaper than pre Covid.
The plan to invoke the Insurrection Act on 1/6 was joined at the hip with the plan to pin the violence on antifa, which failed badly.
Trump was too busy watching it on TV and throwing ketchup on the walls 😸
I'm betting the order was already typed up and ready to roll if the antifa crock of shit had had legs.
He's already promised to do so.
In order to influence political attitudes, particularly in the United States Senate which is our last bulwark against authoritarianism, a concerted effort will be required. Although my concern for Ukraine is a bit of an aside from the topic of martial law, I felt it necessary to contact my US Senator. We should all do the same. Here is what I wrote
"December 4, 2024
The Honorable Alex Padilla United States Senator
331 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
Dear Senator Padilla,
Ukraine is an inflection point which will determine either our continued economic success or future financial failure. Donald Trump has stated that Russia can do whatever it wants with Ukraine. Putin's taking Ukraine will cause irreparable damage to the US economy and our future in a very personal way. Millions of Americans will be worse off if Ukraine falls. Why? Because China is watching the outcome of Putin's war. Putin’s success will embolden China to conquer Taiwan. In so doing, the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping will own nearly all the production of the most important computer chips on the planet. Consider the conclusions of this report-
U.S. EXPOSURE TO THE TAIWANESE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER SERIES Working Paper 2023–11–A
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION 500 E Street SW
Washington, DC 20436 November 2023
"Around 92 percent of the world’s most advanced chip manufacturing capacity is located in Taiwan. Any disruptions to Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing—whether caused by pandemics, natural disasters such as typhoons or earthquakes, power or water shortages, factory shutdowns, or international conflict—would potentially have large impacts on global semiconductor supply."
In your position of responsibility to provide Advice and Consent to the President-elect, should Taiwan be considered in the same light that Trump views Ukraine? Our most effective weapons, including fighter jets and missiles, depend heavily upon these computer chips. If China conquers Taiwan and acquires the information and complex proprietary knowledge necessary to produce these essential pieces of military hardware, how long do you think the US will last as a major world power? If Trump fails on Ukraine, we might as well just give Taiwan to Xi. The Indo- Pacific will be his and gone from US influence. Trade will be choked off at the Mallaca Strait in Southeast Asia. The US dollar will fade as the foundation of international currency. Military hardware will not be the only casualty of a CCP conquest of Taiwan. Massive quantities of lower complexity computer chips go into everyday household items. Hairdryers for ladies have an integrated chip that allows different airflow rates and temperatures. When hairdryers cost
$1000 due to a chip shortage, what will the voting citizenry think? They may not care much about F-35s and Patriot missiles, but hairdryers? Eggs and gasoline will pale in comparison.
You probably already know more about this than I do. However, I would like you to tell me to whom I should write on the Republican side of the US Senate to convey my concerns. And please don't pull a Trump maneuver and figure that we can stand back and let the other political party own this failure. It will then be too late.
Thank you for your time and consideration,
Warden Gulley
Loss of Ukraine is a definite possibility. If it goes, China will take Taiwan.
I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt very much that more than a few Republicans in Congress would oppose Trump's using the Insurrection Act to implement his political policies. Nor would they oppose a martial law declaration.