Although everything you say is true Professor, I’m not sure we’re talking about appeasement in this case; at least not from the American point of view.
It appears Trump is in cahoots with Putin, and with a degraded CIA, FBI, and State Department, we don’t have any real experts attending the conference in Munich. Additionally, I believe this is by design. Trump neutered the Diplomatic Corp., replacing them with sycophants. We’re not prepared for this. And given Trump’s true negotiation skill set, and such AMAZING negotiations for the USMCA, The Doha Agreement, or Surrender Agreement, and his affinity for betraying our allies; the Kurds, I’m not sure we should expect an successful outcome for the Ukrainian’s or our European allies; if you can call them that, given Trump’s vitriol towards them.
Therefore, I must conclude that there are no original thinkers in this bunch heading to Munich; just order takers. And if I’m right, then the plan is to abandon NATO, without actually abandoning it; just keeping our allies in limbo with threats to refuse to defend Article 5, should Russia attack any NATO countries.
My point, Europe cannot rely on America. Trump’s vague threats to our allies, will cause great discomfort, as well as misunderstandings, that could exacerbate the issue.
Thus, we are left in a conundrum of sorts. If Trump is working with Putin to divide the West into two spheres of influence and power, then how do we, as Americans ,fight back against Trump’s plans? I realize this is pure speculation, but what are the alternative theories?
The tariffs are a ruse, nothing about why he is doing it, or the economic benefits are true; yet, he continues to sign executive orders, using tariffs, not against our adversaries, but our allies. It appears he’s trying to destroy the 2nd largest economy in Europe; and that only helps Putin.
Professor, perhaps you can guide us through this type of scenario for our allies, and ourselves. How to we resist Trump’s plans for a New World Order without our allies? Do we even have a chance here, given the dysfunction of our domestic institutions? Just some thoughts…:)
If you haven't already, please read Dr. Snyder's short, succinct and enormously helpful book On Tyranny, which in 125 half pages offers 20 suggestions for resistance, many of them 'mere' acts of solidarity, one sane human to another. As Joyce Vance always reminds us, We Are All in This Together. Or, as a hymn we like to sing in my (UU) church reminds us. "Do not give up. We were made for this."
I have sent "On Tyranny" to several politicians whom I thought might benefit from it. I'm just a little worried that they might have viewed it as a how-to book for establishing an autocracy.
Today, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs against the whole world - "a beautiful, simple policy", he called it. His own VP, Vance contradicted him by saying that the possibility of US troops on the ground in Ukraine was still on the table to force the Russians to the table. A 'New World Order'?!!! it's sheer bloody chaos.
From his bizarre press conference with Trump (where his four-year-old son whispered to Trump 'I want you to shush up') it seems to me that Musk remains undaunted by the commotion he's stirred up. He still claims that he's there to detect waste and fraud but, as Joyce Vance has pointed out, his team are coders not auditors. He clearly has no idea of the impact of the savage cuts he is putting in place (and there's no doubt that Trump doesn't care about this anyway). Gutter language seems to me quite appropriate for gutter politics.
Visuals and subliminal messaging, that bizarre ElonEvent at the Oval Office:
--the Man, in sneeringly casual dress, brings in the youngest of his many children as a prop,hopeful that this helps us to see he's 'a normal dad'; a normal human' (X being the only child of his to not be aware his father is mentally ill)
-- the Second Prop is seated, and subservient: he looks on and Listens, while the Man speaks. Sunburnt orange; bored, unaware; the First Prop tries to engage, via insult....the second Prop, inconsolable, refuses...looking away.
You have articulated my concerns exactly. As a Canadian I’m concerned about Trump’s orientation toward Putin’s imperialist world view. Trump talks about taking Gaza and having Greenland and the Panama Canal. Recently he has increasingly undermined the concept of Canada as a country. He refers to our mutual border as “just a line”. He says, incorrectly, that Canada couldn’t exist without the US propping it up financially referencing a fictional $200 billion that he claims the US is providing to us. Setting aside that the number is wrong, he seems to be equating a trade deficit with some kind of gift the US is to giving us. There are many years that Canada had a trade deficit with the US. Did he think that Canada was financially propping up the US in those years? Be that as it may, Trump’s language toward Canada is sounding more and more like Hitler’s pre-invasion language around Czechoslovakia and Putin’s around Ukraine. Indeed to your point, Robert, I’m not sure we are seeing appeasement so much as a reoriented alliance via Putin and Trump.
"Trump’s language toward Canada is sounding more and more like Hitler’s pre-invasion language around Czechoslovakia and Putin’s around Ukraine."
I'm Canadian, and fully agree.
--I stopped crossing a nearby imaginary line, 20 km away, in 2017; a developing Idiot Wind was fiercely blowing (thanks, Bob Dylan).
--watched the gale go hurricane; watched a nation drawn to Action Movies...choose to re-elect plotless explosions, offering no script. But excitement; uncertainty, hence Power. 70 million +? Yes!! They like!!
--watched the language become dismissive; then insulting; then mocking and insulting; now threatening, mocking and insulting. 51st State. Ha Ha Ha. Not a country. Ha Ha.
--'special military operation'? To quell some 'very bad anti- Americanism'?? Some 'terrible acts' against innocent Americans being committed, some say...
I don't think anybody, Robert, can "guide through this type of scenario for our allies."
Nor for ourselves.
The one point where you and Timothy Snyder are most in accord levels apt scorn for the incompetence and destitute experience among the orange felon's sycophants. They are all that: toadies.
They all also scorn democracy -- so we're back to the larger Q as to what may be next for our allies. The only sure factor is that Putin will have had his agents sowing hatreds and divisiveness among them, as they long have against Americans. Will it work in Europe as it has in the U.S.?
A real crisis. But I tilt strongly toward Timothy Snyder and his verdict of appeasement towards Putin as the only guarantee regarding the convicted criminal, rapist, and con man in the White House.
“He says, incorrectly, that Canada couldn’t exist without the US propping it up financially referencing a fictional $200 billion that he claims the US is providing to us. Setting aside that the number is wrong, he seems to be equating a trade deficit with some kind of gift the US is to giving us.”
Thank you LeeAnne, and never feel the need to correct Trump’s perpetual lies, he knows he’s full of it, but his rubes buy his song and dance: hook, line and sinker! And great comments as well!
And as far as debt? You’re are 100% correct. And He doesn’t know the difference between the current account balance (total deficit from GDP =taxes from GDP revenue collected- total spending) and the trade deficit.
Moreover, the trade deficit includes capital inflows and outflows. Our economy, up until now, was strong and attracting money overseas. That’s part of the trade deficit because it’s a liability on the balance sheet. Additionally, a strong dollar can also cause a trade imbalance. Furthermore, having deficits or surplus’s is more than just trade; goods and services. And a deficit or surplus, by itself, doesn’t tell you the entire picture; from an economic perspective, anyway.
There are many reasons why countries run surplus’s and deficits, and screwing you trading partner is not one of them (for countries running trade deficits). Unless, of course, you’re an adversary, or Trump; chaos and cruelty is the point! Aside from that, he has no idea what he is talking about!
And I share your concern about Canada. Everything points to him working with Putin to divide the West in two. If Europeans get bogged down with Putin, that’s not good news for canada or Mexico. The good news, however, is I don’t know anyone who would fight against any of our allies, especially Canada; regardless of what Trump says; if this truly is his goal.
And maybe, he’s just applying pressure so he gets more of your resources. Either way, and although I would never vote for him, the people I know who did, did not sign up for this crap; excuse my French, and I also know that millions of Americans and our Canadian friends, will not go gently into that goodnight!…:)
“ Hitler argued that Ukraine itself was artificial, the result of a historical turning point that never should have happened, the collapse of the Soviet Union.” Shouldn’t that read, “Putin” rather than Hitler?
That's my question. If I were our allies, I would just operate like we do not exist. They must for the security of the Free World. Pains me to say that as an American, but I care about our friends.
True, but I’m sure by know they realize what’s happening. Germany is looking to change its constitution, so it can better prepare for a possible confrontation with Russia.
Trump yesterday, when asked whether Ukraine would be a co-equal partner in any peace negotiations, havered: "hmmm...that's an interesting question." He then went on to blame Ukraine for the war: "...it was a bad war to enter." As though the Ukrainians had any choice after being invaded! The recent lectures from Hegseth and Trump have left western european leaders reeling and totally unconvinced. Yesterday, Keir Starmer became the first european leader to ignore the apparent American veto and back Ukraine's bid for NATO membership.
Short answer is, “No!” This is not appeasement as much as Russia and US carving up Ukraine as the Nazis and Soviets did in 1939 to Poland. Hegseth/Rubio are the Von Ribbentrop while Lavrov is the modern day Molotov.
Trump’s megalomaniacal psychopathy requires vengeance, retribution, pain inflicting trauma and suffering. We must remember how he sat in the WH watching TV over 2 hours relishing the trauma and terror inflicted on Capital Police and Congress. He is hell bent to satisfy his lust and praise from his dictators heroes.
Trump wants to see people die, he is as simple as that.
He's undoubtedly a strange fellow. He shows little concern for the impact on others of his reckless decisions. He accuses critics of his plans of having a "low pain threshold" without any sense of irony. Yet he is able to empathise with the grievances and anger of his base - when being urged to intervene to stop the Capitol siege he said that people's anger should be acknowledged. He successfully associates his own grievances with those of his base - there's are mostly real while his are fictitious. It's reported that Kristi Noem missed out on the VP job because Trump was disgusted by her story about shooting a dog. This wasn't sympathy for the dog but disgust at her behaviour. He showed similar disgust at Hilary Clinton having to take a toilet break when campaigning. Simple acts of kindness are beyond him, yet bombastic promises of lifting the country up are well within his compass. Psychologists have enough material there for an entire symposium but in the meantime Americans have to deal with a man-sized, badly-behaved toddler in charge of their government.
Yes, apparently this prompted Trump to make a surprise phone call to Starmer while he was in a meeting with Mark Burnett, the British TV producer responsible for the US version of The Apprentice, whom Trump has appointed as special envoy to the UK. Trump knew the meeting was taking place and had an assistant place a mobile phone in the meeting room!
I cannot wait until everyone, all other countries’ leaders and officials, push back at Trump et al. They’re all schoolyard bullies and understand nothing but threats and slap downs. The Mexican president did it masterfully. Trump backed down. Panama is not taking his shit either. Neither is Trudeau, although Trudeau has to come out a bit stronger. His speech was great, reminding Trump about our friendship, but he needs to say, “you try this, and you will see what happens. It will be the worst thing you can imagine.” I mean, throw Trump’s language back at him. Make him wonder what his wife’s heartthrob is capable of. Use dirty tricks if necessary. No one should handle any of these clowns as regular politicians.
Trump's presidency has emboldened right-wing forces across the world. Javier Milei, president of Argentina, recently announced his country was also withdrawing from the WHO. The Guardian reported recently on the support Trump has received from authoritarian leaders of countries from the old Soviet bloc - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/12/usaid-musk-soviet-bloc
And, of course, Trump has plenty of cheerleaders in Russia with state media praising his policy stance on Ukraine. It's going to take some nerve for the EU, in particular, to put its domestic squabbles away for a while and deal with this threat from across the ocean.
Rubio has been trying to mitigate the damage by saying that all the US is presently doing is assessing whether Putin is serious about peace and that substantive talks about what that would entail would include both the Ukrainians and the europeans. Of course, one doesn't know whether he's speaking for the administration or is just one of many voices in this chaotic US response to the crisis.
A more leftwing website characterized Trump/Hegseth/Rubio at Munich like this - "They make Neville Chamberlain look like Genghis Kahn". Not only did they sell out Ukraine, they turned the US into both an international laughing stock and pariah. Good job MAGAs. This will not end well.
While Dr Snyder’s analysis bears the stamp of truth, he’s focused only one of the two appeasments going on here. The other, of course is the Republican Senate’s appeasement of Donald Trump and his Cabinet picks.
I mention this because while it may seem a bit irrelevant to Dr. Snyder’s concerns (except as he’s fully aware of the chaos in the Trump administration) both appeasements have this in common. In both cases, the appeasers are hoping that someone else will solve the problem for them.
In terms of Ukraine, of course, the Trump administration is hoping that the other European nations will do the heavy lifting in opposing Russia. This mirrors our isolationist attitudes prior to both World Wars, into which we had to be dragged kicking and screaming by attacks on our own soil, directly by Japan on December 7th, and by Germany in the potential inherent in the Zimmerman telegram. In both cases, Americans were well aware of the fact that the Europeans had been going at each other in various combinations for two millennia or more, and we didn’t see why we had to get involved in their murderous squabbles.
So far, of course we have not faced anything like that from Russia. Except of course that the nature of any threat from Russia (or China for that matter) is far more immediate than either in 1917 and 1941. Missiles take a far shorter time than ships.
In the other case, the spineless Republican Senate has completely caved to Trump and his cabinet picks. The Republicans have tried vainly to hide behind sanctimonious paeans to the President’s right to choose his main advisory group, regardless of their own very legitimate concerns about the fitness of those candidates. They are hoping that either the Democrats or the cornucopia of lawsuits being launched against Trump’s EO’s will the heavy lifting, forgetting or denying their own responsibilties in favor of hoping for both re-election and freedom from the flood of threats they would have gotten had they opposed Trump.
Thus the central factor here is that Republican spinelessness. Unfortunately then, we are all losers.
My fear is that Trump/Musk will quickly end American assistance and support to the Ukraine. They have no historical understanding, nor are they interested in gaining that. As we are learning every day, elections have consequences, both for us and the rest of the world.
It is far worse than that. NATO is dead. US soft power is no more. Soon the US will have no allies. Only part of Europe is ready (shocker…those with a history of dealing with Russian Imperialism).
There is one good thing happening in Europe, and that is: Even Germany is trying to arm and person up. Pistorius (German Defence Minister) is no toady and is working hard to build a fighting army. Scandinavia is preparing for war along with the Baltics which have no doubts about what Putin is up to. Poland has rejoined democratic Europe and is getting ready to fight. France has battle hardened troops and nukes. Still problematic are Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Austria, and Italy. Although Meloni has stated her support for Ukraine. The pull out of the USA will be devastating nevertheless, but maybe, just maybe an armed and mostly defiant Europe will provide enough of a deterrent. Slava Ukraini!
Jonathan I did not say that, I am an American and proud of it. There are still a majority of us who believe in our Mission of more good than bad in the world. Clearly we have failed, currently. But we will NOT let the USA eat itself, maybe just a nibble?
News analysts are still acting as if there is careful policy thinking behind Vance et al’s statements. There is not. This is a government of sycophants ruled only by the narcissistic whims of DT who loves authoritarians. I agree that we are in a terrifying moment where the costs of the election are becoming apparent at home and abroad.
Edited to add, I don’t mean you as a news analyst Professor Snyder. I truly appreciate your insights and courage. You are a model for all of us, including those of us who are professors.
This^^^ X 1000. These people are fanatical sociopaths. Mango Mussolini's mentions of Hannibal Lecter on the campaign trail were statements of admiration and a desire to emulate. While we still can, we need mass mobilization of hundreds of thousands of people in every state capital saying NO to all of this madness. And then, of course, we need courageous Republicans (is there such a thing?) who can be awoken from the cult to join with Democrats to put a stop to all of this. The likelihood of either of those things happening? Slim to none, in my view.
Not entirely the point but Chamberlin was facing direct danger to his own country and recent scholarship has emphasised that his government had a degraded army after decades of neglect. Additionally Chamberlin did push increasing in defense spending, obviously not enough to protect France in 1940, including the creation of the Dowding system which was instrumental in the defense of the UK from invasion.
On the other hand we have Trump and his cronies whose only negative feelings about Putin are jealousy.
"No one in the heights of Musk-Trump, I would suppose, gives a thought to what would have happened had Ukraine not resisted, or what will happen if American policy makes that resistance impossible."
"Among the more disturbing conclusions she [Hannah Arendt] reached were those about Eichmann himself: “Despite all the efforts of the prosecution, everybody could see that this man was not a ‘monster,’ but it was difficult indeed not to suspect that he was a clown.” He was not the incarnation of evil, she wrote; he was “thoughtless,” unable to reflect on the fact that what he was doing was wrong. “The longer one listened to him, the more obvious it became that his inability to speak [in anything but clichés] was closely connected with an inability to think, namely, to think from the standpoint of somebody else.”
Please note that the second quote is from a government website. The Republican Regime is scrubbing science websites. The Republican Regime is eliminating and revising history under the cloak of anti-woke anti-DEI. The Republican Regime embraces White Supremacism and White Supremacist Holocaust Deniers. How long will we have access to historical scholarship?
I've always loved history, so I love that it's historians - Dr. Snyder and Dr. Heather Cox Richardson - leading the way for us to understand what's happening and why. History rhymes and, if we are to survive this, we need to know what's worked and what hasn't. I've been using the word appeasement a lot lately, especially in my daily calls to my elected representatives and in calls to arms on FB. I just wish there was more I can do.
I've also been deeply grateful to the Ukrainian people for their bravery and persistence. At the beginning of the war, there was a video (I'm tearing up now even thinking about it) of a mother evacuating the country. She was lovingly and almost tearfully adjusting the hoodie of her son who was staying in order to fight. He was stoic. They both knew. I have a young adult son and I'm deeply terrified of finding ourselves in that position. That's why I'll do whatever I can to prevent it, not only for my son but for all sons everywhere.
Great analysis. I hope you will be read not only by the European politicians and citizins, but also by the people of the USA and by them in charge of power.
Absolutely. Would be particularly useful if the members of the Senate, at least those with some independence of thought, would read it. Then consider it. Then discuss its ramifications with Hegseth.
My biggest fear is that the US will end a part of the China and Russia dominated BRICS bloc, leaving the EU and NATO twisting in the wind. Applying the analogy, it would be as if FDR had heard Churchill out then decided to side with Hitler, doubling down on appeasement.
Thank you Dr Snyder. So many miss reads lead to miss steps in 1938. And these were very experienced and wise people, some dealing with their own domestic crisis, coming out of a pandemic, a depression, and rebuilding after a previous world war just did’t leave space for the happenings in other countries.
Today we have very dumb and very inexperienced people. How will they respond to the unexpected chain of events that their minds could not creatively consider. Do the same minds lack creative problem-solving skills? Yes, I think do.
What will be the consequences of not being able to anticipate multiple scenarios? Their over confidence and naïveté creates a vacuum of leadership, and nature abhors a vacuum.
The first American move under Musk-Trump has been to endorse appeasement. Knowingly or not, and I do not presume to say which, that choice pushes us one step towards 1939.
The trio of Trump, Putin and Musk is as toxic, and as dangerous to our world, as anyone can imagine.
I have to agree. The trio is very toxic and extremely volatile.
re "very toxic and extremely volatile":
Which is why their brand of evil continues to be such a threat. They're megalomaniacs.
Although everything you say is true Professor, I’m not sure we’re talking about appeasement in this case; at least not from the American point of view.
It appears Trump is in cahoots with Putin, and with a degraded CIA, FBI, and State Department, we don’t have any real experts attending the conference in Munich. Additionally, I believe this is by design. Trump neutered the Diplomatic Corp., replacing them with sycophants. We’re not prepared for this. And given Trump’s true negotiation skill set, and such AMAZING negotiations for the USMCA, The Doha Agreement, or Surrender Agreement, and his affinity for betraying our allies; the Kurds, I’m not sure we should expect an successful outcome for the Ukrainian’s or our European allies; if you can call them that, given Trump’s vitriol towards them.
Therefore, I must conclude that there are no original thinkers in this bunch heading to Munich; just order takers. And if I’m right, then the plan is to abandon NATO, without actually abandoning it; just keeping our allies in limbo with threats to refuse to defend Article 5, should Russia attack any NATO countries.
My point, Europe cannot rely on America. Trump’s vague threats to our allies, will cause great discomfort, as well as misunderstandings, that could exacerbate the issue.
Thus, we are left in a conundrum of sorts. If Trump is working with Putin to divide the West into two spheres of influence and power, then how do we, as Americans ,fight back against Trump’s plans? I realize this is pure speculation, but what are the alternative theories?
The tariffs are a ruse, nothing about why he is doing it, or the economic benefits are true; yet, he continues to sign executive orders, using tariffs, not against our adversaries, but our allies. It appears he’s trying to destroy the 2nd largest economy in Europe; and that only helps Putin.
Professor, perhaps you can guide us through this type of scenario for our allies, and ourselves. How to we resist Trump’s plans for a New World Order without our allies? Do we even have a chance here, given the dysfunction of our domestic institutions? Just some thoughts…:)
If you haven't already, please read Dr. Snyder's short, succinct and enormously helpful book On Tyranny, which in 125 half pages offers 20 suggestions for resistance, many of them 'mere' acts of solidarity, one sane human to another. As Joyce Vance always reminds us, We Are All in This Together. Or, as a hymn we like to sing in my (UU) church reminds us. "Do not give up. We were made for this."
Or watch it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tocssf3w80&list=PLhZxrogyToZsllfRqQllyuFNbT-ER7TAu
I’ll download it today. Thank you…😁
I have sent "On Tyranny" to several politicians whom I thought might benefit from it. I'm just a little worried that they might have viewed it as a how-to book for establishing an autocracy.
Today, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs against the whole world - "a beautiful, simple policy", he called it. His own VP, Vance contradicted him by saying that the possibility of US troops on the ground in Ukraine was still on the table to force the Russians to the table. A 'New World Order'?!!! it's sheer bloody chaos.
Ha!ha! The Musk is getting cold feet! Where is your Army, Mr. Musk?
Your buddy in the Oval office is about to piss in the soup.
(Ya'll please excuse me this time for the gutter language borrowed from a book about management written some 55 years ago. It seems to fit here.)
From his bizarre press conference with Trump (where his four-year-old son whispered to Trump 'I want you to shush up') it seems to me that Musk remains undaunted by the commotion he's stirred up. He still claims that he's there to detect waste and fraud but, as Joyce Vance has pointed out, his team are coders not auditors. He clearly has no idea of the impact of the savage cuts he is putting in place (and there's no doubt that Trump doesn't care about this anyway). Gutter language seems to me quite appropriate for gutter politics.
Visuals and subliminal messaging, that bizarre ElonEvent at the Oval Office:
--the Man, in sneeringly casual dress, brings in the youngest of his many children as a prop,hopeful that this helps us to see he's 'a normal dad'; a normal human' (X being the only child of his to not be aware his father is mentally ill)
-- the Second Prop is seated, and subservient: he looks on and Listens, while the Man speaks. Sunburnt orange; bored, unaware; the First Prop tries to engage, via insult....the second Prop, inconsolable, refuses...looking away.
Hurt. Diminished.
You nailed it!
You have articulated my concerns exactly. As a Canadian I’m concerned about Trump’s orientation toward Putin’s imperialist world view. Trump talks about taking Gaza and having Greenland and the Panama Canal. Recently he has increasingly undermined the concept of Canada as a country. He refers to our mutual border as “just a line”. He says, incorrectly, that Canada couldn’t exist without the US propping it up financially referencing a fictional $200 billion that he claims the US is providing to us. Setting aside that the number is wrong, he seems to be equating a trade deficit with some kind of gift the US is to giving us. There are many years that Canada had a trade deficit with the US. Did he think that Canada was financially propping up the US in those years? Be that as it may, Trump’s language toward Canada is sounding more and more like Hitler’s pre-invasion language around Czechoslovakia and Putin’s around Ukraine. Indeed to your point, Robert, I’m not sure we are seeing appeasement so much as a reoriented alliance via Putin and Trump.
"Trump’s language toward Canada is sounding more and more like Hitler’s pre-invasion language around Czechoslovakia and Putin’s around Ukraine."
I'm Canadian, and fully agree.
--I stopped crossing a nearby imaginary line, 20 km away, in 2017; a developing Idiot Wind was fiercely blowing (thanks, Bob Dylan).
--watched the gale go hurricane; watched a nation drawn to Action Movies...choose to re-elect plotless explosions, offering no script. But excitement; uncertainty, hence Power. 70 million +? Yes!! They like!!
--watched the language become dismissive; then insulting; then mocking and insulting; now threatening, mocking and insulting. 51st State. Ha Ha Ha. Not a country. Ha Ha.
--'special military operation'? To quell some 'very bad anti- Americanism'?? Some 'terrible acts' against innocent Americans being committed, some say...
I’m Canadian too and just as alarmed as you. My idea: Trump is friendly to Putin because he wants to be a dictator like Putin. He admires Putin.
I don’t think he’ll succeed—there’s too much opposition to him. But in the meantime it’s a wild and unpredictable situation.
Exactly what I was thinking -- that thing wants its own Ukraine, so as to gain entry to the historical monster club.
I don't think anybody, Robert, can "guide through this type of scenario for our allies."
Nor for ourselves.
The one point where you and Timothy Snyder are most in accord levels apt scorn for the incompetence and destitute experience among the orange felon's sycophants. They are all that: toadies.
They all also scorn democracy -- so we're back to the larger Q as to what may be next for our allies. The only sure factor is that Putin will have had his agents sowing hatreds and divisiveness among them, as they long have against Americans. Will it work in Europe as it has in the U.S.?
A real crisis. But I tilt strongly toward Timothy Snyder and his verdict of appeasement towards Putin as the only guarantee regarding the convicted criminal, rapist, and con man in the White House.
Agreed, but you must consider the fact that Trump is already compromised. And if so, then what?
“He says, incorrectly, that Canada couldn’t exist without the US propping it up financially referencing a fictional $200 billion that he claims the US is providing to us. Setting aside that the number is wrong, he seems to be equating a trade deficit with some kind of gift the US is to giving us.”
Thank you LeeAnne, and never feel the need to correct Trump’s perpetual lies, he knows he’s full of it, but his rubes buy his song and dance: hook, line and sinker! And great comments as well!
And as far as debt? You’re are 100% correct. And He doesn’t know the difference between the current account balance (total deficit from GDP =taxes from GDP revenue collected- total spending) and the trade deficit.
Moreover, the trade deficit includes capital inflows and outflows. Our economy, up until now, was strong and attracting money overseas. That’s part of the trade deficit because it’s a liability on the balance sheet. Additionally, a strong dollar can also cause a trade imbalance. Furthermore, having deficits or surplus’s is more than just trade; goods and services. And a deficit or surplus, by itself, doesn’t tell you the entire picture; from an economic perspective, anyway.
There are many reasons why countries run surplus’s and deficits, and screwing you trading partner is not one of them (for countries running trade deficits). Unless, of course, you’re an adversary, or Trump; chaos and cruelty is the point! Aside from that, he has no idea what he is talking about!
And I share your concern about Canada. Everything points to him working with Putin to divide the West in two. If Europeans get bogged down with Putin, that’s not good news for canada or Mexico. The good news, however, is I don’t know anyone who would fight against any of our allies, especially Canada; regardless of what Trump says; if this truly is his goal.
And maybe, he’s just applying pressure so he gets more of your resources. Either way, and although I would never vote for him, the people I know who did, did not sign up for this crap; excuse my French, and I also know that millions of Americans and our Canadian friends, will not go gently into that goodnight!…:)
“ Hitler argued that Ukraine itself was artificial, the result of a historical turning point that never should have happened, the collapse of the Soviet Union.” Shouldn’t that read, “Putin” rather than Hitler?
I thought so as well. Nice catch.
Or how do our allies proceed with the US?
That's my question. If I were our allies, I would just operate like we do not exist. They must for the security of the Free World. Pains me to say that as an American, but I care about our friends.
🤗
True, but I’m sure by know they realize what’s happening. Germany is looking to change its constitution, so it can better prepare for a possible confrontation with Russia.
They certainly do realise what is happening. Better than Trump does, I think. Sheer bloody chaos, indeed.
Trump yesterday, when asked whether Ukraine would be a co-equal partner in any peace negotiations, havered: "hmmm...that's an interesting question." He then went on to blame Ukraine for the war: "...it was a bad war to enter." As though the Ukrainians had any choice after being invaded! The recent lectures from Hegseth and Trump have left western european leaders reeling and totally unconvinced. Yesterday, Keir Starmer became the first european leader to ignore the apparent American veto and back Ukraine's bid for NATO membership.
Short answer is, “No!” This is not appeasement as much as Russia and US carving up Ukraine as the Nazis and Soviets did in 1939 to Poland. Hegseth/Rubio are the Von Ribbentrop while Lavrov is the modern day Molotov.
Panama, Greenland, Canada, Gaza and now Ukraine? Where does it all end? Has your president gone completely nuts?
Gone nuts? He always was nuts. Just the country lost its mind
Yes, to an extent but this incarnation of Trump the president is Prometheus Unbound. He's become completely untethered to reality and there's no one around him counselling him to be more cautious in the pursuance of his goals. And there are goals amidst all the chaos and commotion. There was a perceptive article by professor Jeannie Suk Gerson in the New Yorker on Thursday about how Trump wants the Supreme Court to extend his executive powers and exactly what arguments his lawyers are likely to deploy https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-strategy-behind-trumps-defiance-of-the-law?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_Paid_021425&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&utm_term=tny_daily_digest&bxid=5c9234a0fbd2971feb6850c0&cndid=56743531&hasha=7efa1f5a7e0af9381558d985e7b8b453&hashb=5d1e92504e3e9b7a64f220161fe38ffde3001981&hashc=0da6ebe7c5350dad4dce73d99d34109df062be9cf457a2a8f3ba84d2b111db99&esrc=MARTECH_ORDERFORM&mbid=CRMNYR012019
I’ll read that, thanks.
Trump’s megalomaniacal psychopathy requires vengeance, retribution, pain inflicting trauma and suffering. We must remember how he sat in the WH watching TV over 2 hours relishing the trauma and terror inflicted on Capital Police and Congress. He is hell bent to satisfy his lust and praise from his dictators heroes.
Trump wants to see people die, he is as simple as that.
He's undoubtedly a strange fellow. He shows little concern for the impact on others of his reckless decisions. He accuses critics of his plans of having a "low pain threshold" without any sense of irony. Yet he is able to empathise with the grievances and anger of his base - when being urged to intervene to stop the Capitol siege he said that people's anger should be acknowledged. He successfully associates his own grievances with those of his base - there's are mostly real while his are fictitious. It's reported that Kristi Noem missed out on the VP job because Trump was disgusted by her story about shooting a dog. This wasn't sympathy for the dog but disgust at her behaviour. He showed similar disgust at Hilary Clinton having to take a toilet break when campaigning. Simple acts of kindness are beyond him, yet bombastic promises of lifting the country up are well within his compass. Psychologists have enough material there for an entire symposium but in the meantime Americans have to deal with a man-sized, badly-behaved toddler in charge of their government.
Yes.
Starmer did? Thanks! That’s great news!
Yes, apparently this prompted Trump to make a surprise phone call to Starmer while he was in a meeting with Mark Burnett, the British TV producer responsible for the US version of The Apprentice, whom Trump has appointed as special envoy to the UK. Trump knew the meeting was taking place and had an assistant place a mobile phone in the meeting room!
I cannot wait until everyone, all other countries’ leaders and officials, push back at Trump et al. They’re all schoolyard bullies and understand nothing but threats and slap downs. The Mexican president did it masterfully. Trump backed down. Panama is not taking his shit either. Neither is Trudeau, although Trudeau has to come out a bit stronger. His speech was great, reminding Trump about our friendship, but he needs to say, “you try this, and you will see what happens. It will be the worst thing you can imagine.” I mean, throw Trump’s language back at him. Make him wonder what his wife’s heartthrob is capable of. Use dirty tricks if necessary. No one should handle any of these clowns as regular politicians.
Trump's presidency has emboldened right-wing forces across the world. Javier Milei, president of Argentina, recently announced his country was also withdrawing from the WHO. The Guardian reported recently on the support Trump has received from authoritarian leaders of countries from the old Soviet bloc - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/12/usaid-musk-soviet-bloc
The there was Vance's hectoring speech at yesterday's Munich Security Conference where he lifted rubbish off the internet to illustrate his crackpot thesis - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/14/thought-and-cancelled-elections-how-do-jd-vances-europe-claims-stand-up
And, of course, Trump has plenty of cheerleaders in Russia with state media praising his policy stance on Ukraine. It's going to take some nerve for the EU, in particular, to put its domestic squabbles away for a while and deal with this threat from across the ocean.
I hope they do it soon! And yes, all the authoritarians cheer Trump on. It’s disgusting.
Rubio has been trying to mitigate the damage by saying that all the US is presently doing is assessing whether Putin is serious about peace and that substantive talks about what that would entail would include both the Ukrainians and the europeans. Of course, one doesn't know whether he's speaking for the administration or is just one of many voices in this chaotic US response to the crisis.
A more leftwing website characterized Trump/Hegseth/Rubio at Munich like this - "They make Neville Chamberlain look like Genghis Kahn". Not only did they sell out Ukraine, they turned the US into both an international laughing stock and pariah. Good job MAGAs. This will not end well.
While Dr Snyder’s analysis bears the stamp of truth, he’s focused only one of the two appeasments going on here. The other, of course is the Republican Senate’s appeasement of Donald Trump and his Cabinet picks.
I mention this because while it may seem a bit irrelevant to Dr. Snyder’s concerns (except as he’s fully aware of the chaos in the Trump administration) both appeasements have this in common. In both cases, the appeasers are hoping that someone else will solve the problem for them.
In terms of Ukraine, of course, the Trump administration is hoping that the other European nations will do the heavy lifting in opposing Russia. This mirrors our isolationist attitudes prior to both World Wars, into which we had to be dragged kicking and screaming by attacks on our own soil, directly by Japan on December 7th, and by Germany in the potential inherent in the Zimmerman telegram. In both cases, Americans were well aware of the fact that the Europeans had been going at each other in various combinations for two millennia or more, and we didn’t see why we had to get involved in their murderous squabbles.
So far, of course we have not faced anything like that from Russia. Except of course that the nature of any threat from Russia (or China for that matter) is far more immediate than either in 1917 and 1941. Missiles take a far shorter time than ships.
In the other case, the spineless Republican Senate has completely caved to Trump and his cabinet picks. The Republicans have tried vainly to hide behind sanctimonious paeans to the President’s right to choose his main advisory group, regardless of their own very legitimate concerns about the fitness of those candidates. They are hoping that either the Democrats or the cornucopia of lawsuits being launched against Trump’s EO’s will the heavy lifting, forgetting or denying their own responsibilties in favor of hoping for both re-election and freedom from the flood of threats they would have gotten had they opposed Trump.
Thus the central factor here is that Republican spinelessness. Unfortunately then, we are all losers.
My fear is that Trump/Musk will quickly end American assistance and support to the Ukraine. They have no historical understanding, nor are they interested in gaining that. As we are learning every day, elections have consequences, both for us and the rest of the world.
It is far worse than that. NATO is dead. US soft power is no more. Soon the US will have no allies. Only part of Europe is ready (shocker…those with a history of dealing with Russian Imperialism).
There is one good thing happening in Europe, and that is: Even Germany is trying to arm and person up. Pistorius (German Defence Minister) is no toady and is working hard to build a fighting army. Scandinavia is preparing for war along with the Baltics which have no doubts about what Putin is up to. Poland has rejoined democratic Europe and is getting ready to fight. France has battle hardened troops and nukes. Still problematic are Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Austria, and Italy. Although Meloni has stated her support for Ukraine. The pull out of the USA will be devastating nevertheless, but maybe, just maybe an armed and mostly defiant Europe will provide enough of a deterrent. Slava Ukraini!
Yes! It’s our war now. Europe can do this. Let the US eat itself.
Jonathan I did not say that, I am an American and proud of it. There are still a majority of us who believe in our Mission of more good than bad in the world. Clearly we have failed, currently. But we will NOT let the USA eat itself, maybe just a nibble?
Serbia has historically been a Russian ally. Hungary under Orban is pro-Putin.
News analysts are still acting as if there is careful policy thinking behind Vance et al’s statements. There is not. This is a government of sycophants ruled only by the narcissistic whims of DT who loves authoritarians. I agree that we are in a terrifying moment where the costs of the election are becoming apparent at home and abroad.
Edited to add, I don’t mean you as a news analyst Professor Snyder. I truly appreciate your insights and courage. You are a model for all of us, including those of us who are professors.
This^^^ X 1000. These people are fanatical sociopaths. Mango Mussolini's mentions of Hannibal Lecter on the campaign trail were statements of admiration and a desire to emulate. While we still can, we need mass mobilization of hundreds of thousands of people in every state capital saying NO to all of this madness. And then, of course, we need courageous Republicans (is there such a thing?) who can be awoken from the cult to join with Democrats to put a stop to all of this. The likelihood of either of those things happening? Slim to none, in my view.
Not entirely the point but Chamberlin was facing direct danger to his own country and recent scholarship has emphasised that his government had a degraded army after decades of neglect. Additionally Chamberlin did push increasing in defense spending, obviously not enough to protect France in 1940, including the creation of the Dowding system which was instrumental in the defense of the UK from invasion.
On the other hand we have Trump and his cronies whose only negative feelings about Putin are jealousy.
"No one in the heights of Musk-Trump, I would suppose, gives a thought to what would have happened had Ukraine not resisted, or what will happen if American policy makes that resistance impossible."
"Among the more disturbing conclusions she [Hannah Arendt] reached were those about Eichmann himself: “Despite all the efforts of the prosecution, everybody could see that this man was not a ‘monster,’ but it was difficult indeed not to suspect that he was a clown.” He was not the incarnation of evil, she wrote; he was “thoughtless,” unable to reflect on the fact that what he was doing was wrong. “The longer one listened to him, the more obvious it became that his inability to speak [in anything but clichés] was closely connected with an inability to think, namely, to think from the standpoint of somebody else.”
https://www.neh.gov/humanities/2014/marchapril/feature/the-trial-hannah-arendt "
Please note that the second quote is from a government website. The Republican Regime is scrubbing science websites. The Republican Regime is eliminating and revising history under the cloak of anti-woke anti-DEI. The Republican Regime embraces White Supremacism and White Supremacist Holocaust Deniers. How long will we have access to historical scholarship?
I've always loved history, so I love that it's historians - Dr. Snyder and Dr. Heather Cox Richardson - leading the way for us to understand what's happening and why. History rhymes and, if we are to survive this, we need to know what's worked and what hasn't. I've been using the word appeasement a lot lately, especially in my daily calls to my elected representatives and in calls to arms on FB. I just wish there was more I can do.
I've also been deeply grateful to the Ukrainian people for their bravery and persistence. At the beginning of the war, there was a video (I'm tearing up now even thinking about it) of a mother evacuating the country. She was lovingly and almost tearfully adjusting the hoodie of her son who was staying in order to fight. He was stoic. They both knew. I have a young adult son and I'm deeply terrified of finding ourselves in that position. That's why I'll do whatever I can to prevent it, not only for my son but for all sons everywhere.
Great analysis. I hope you will be read not only by the European politicians and citizins, but also by the people of the USA and by them in charge of power.
Absolutely. Would be particularly useful if the members of the Senate, at least those with some independence of thought, would read it. Then consider it. Then discuss its ramifications with Hegseth.
My biggest fear is that the US will end a part of the China and Russia dominated BRICS bloc, leaving the EU and NATO twisting in the wind. Applying the analogy, it would be as if FDR had heard Churchill out then decided to side with Hitler, doubling down on appeasement.
I thought of something similar, seeing a cartoon that was posted of Putin, Trump and Xi seated at a dining table, carving up the globe.
Except that Trump is and has been a patsy.
Thank you Dr Snyder. So many miss reads lead to miss steps in 1938. And these were very experienced and wise people, some dealing with their own domestic crisis, coming out of a pandemic, a depression, and rebuilding after a previous world war just did’t leave space for the happenings in other countries.
Today we have very dumb and very inexperienced people. How will they respond to the unexpected chain of events that their minds could not creatively consider. Do the same minds lack creative problem-solving skills? Yes, I think do.
What will be the consequences of not being able to anticipate multiple scenarios? Their over confidence and naïveté creates a vacuum of leadership, and nature abhors a vacuum.
The first American move under Musk-Trump has been to endorse appeasement. Knowingly or not, and I do not presume to say which, that choice pushes us one step towards 1939.
11:35am Munich time, 14 February 2025 ⏰
Great Scenario analysis Professor Tim. Thanks for your thoughtfulness. The real danger clearly identified. Slava Ukraini!