Unfortunately, the incoming administration has a number of Evangelicals who want to bring about a "second coming of Christ," and see any amount of death, destruction, and suffering as bringing us closer to that possibility. A good Substack source on this for further reading is author Andra Watkins.
Yes, I subscribe to Andra Watkins and have read Project 2025. Unfortunately the drafters of the Blueprint for Trump's government are Christian Nationalists, and want to destroy before rebuilding, as they see this as the most efficient way to get across their goals. The ultimate goal is to do what they think is God's bidding as they see it, without the pesky Constitution getting in the way on their way to Heaven.
Here is a link she has to explain what seem like crazy behaviors to us. I agree CNs want to turn the US into a CN theocracy and end their days going out in glory. However, though the military has Christian Nationalists in it, and additional White Supremacist militia members, I don't see that as being the majority of the military. I am hoping that I have not miscalculated on this. Time will tell. However, Andra Watkins, CN expert explains why CNs want to destroy the US. https://open.substack.com/pub/andrawatkins/p/christian-nationalists-and-the-end-8b7?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
For years now, especially since the Tea Party, this group has said that it "want[s] to destroy before rebuilding." During the budget crisis in 2011 some of them said, "Yes, things will be bad for a while if the US defaults on its debt, but we will come back even stronger." But it won't. In the end, the leaders of this group might have nothing left to govern, and they could lose their vast wealth. The US is not surrounded by a cordon sanitaire. No country is; no country lives outside of history. The fantasy of US exceptionalism--that terrible things can happen to us and we will always spring back--is made of narcissism, greed, and foolishness.
I am saying that too. I believe we are in the middle of a world war already, it is a technology war. The war of disinformation on information. I think all countries should be taking it much more seriously and not hiding behind ideas like free speech. Those are ideas developed before mass global disinformation campaigns were capable of existing and since we have this now, we should be rethinking our approach and taking this on as a battle.
How many times have we heard the CN kristofascists expound on the lunacy of Islamic extremism? The CNs are every bit as fanatical as their Islamic counterparts and they have much better weapons! They can afford to take the high road because they have the most powerful country/military on this planet in their corner.
I agree CNs want to turn the US into a CN theocracy and end their days going out in glory. However, though the military has Christian Nationalists in it, and additional White Supremacist militia members, I don't see that as being the majority of the military. I am hoping that I have not miscalculated on this. Time will tell. However, Andra Watkins, CN expert explains why CNs want to destroy the US. https://open.substack.com/pub/andrawatkins/p/christian-nationalists-and-the-end-8b7?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
I agree CNs want to turn the US into a CN theocracy and end their days going out in glory. However, though the military has Christian Nationalists in it, and additional White Supremacist militia members, I don't see that as being the majority of the military. I am hoping that I have not miscalculated on this. Time will tell. However, Andra Watkins, CN expert explains why CNs want to destroy the US. https://open.substack.com/pub/andrawatkins/p/christian-nationalists-and-the-end-8b7?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
I come from a community filled with information. Real independent book stores, lectures and discussions available to attend all the time, and a major city which has 2 citywide, and many local newspapers, including in my own community. I am not forced to get all my information from social media, or the internet. I can imagine what that would be like. Also, I still like to read, as do others on these Substacks. I have many friends who do not. At least some listen to books on tape, others do not even do that. It is YouTube for all their media attention.
Remember those who said the same thing when Bush invaded Iraq, that is was God’s will and it would bring about a cornucopia of good things. Evangelical support for Bush was thru the roof at that time. It’s funny isn’t it, these evangelicals still seem to be searching for an earthly savior. Hmmm
Christians who don't remember the Golden Calf . . . nor the sin of pride (though I'm not sure of the scriptural references for that). I've been reading some very intellectual (and not so intellectual) Kabbalah lately and I love this formulation . . . that the 613 commandments in Torah can be reduced numerologically (yeah) to the 10, which reduce numerologically to the 1. Numerology is just fun, but I concur with the principle. And so, if one is greedy above all else one cannot possibly be a monotheist.
As j.c.1 used to say “Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.” so the goldbiblewatchsneaking oaf darkens all and sundry.
The nuke threats seem to work. But if you want to reality check for your sanity, ask yourself if nuclear war makes any sense for Russia given its alternatives. Russian propaganda would like the West to believe we can not allow Ukraine to fight back fairly or else Russia would deploy nukes against the West. This is absolutely absurd of course.
Play it out in your head. Russia starts nuclear war and it is horrifying of course. But it also results in mutual destruction. A whole lot of it. Within Russia too.
Now, what are Russia’s alternatives to this horrible fate. Well, they don’t have to start nuclear war. Its pretty simple. Given they are the aggressors, have invaded and can withdraw at will, its really fucking clear they are bluffing.
For nuclear war to make sense for Russia, it would need to be truly threatened with an equal or greater amount of destruction.
The nuke threats are not working on Ukraine, or on Scandinavian countries. They are preparing for a war extension and sending out plans to their people. All of them have updated their emergency preparedness brochures, which includes nuclear and cyber attacks. There are links to the 4 brochures in this article. All in English. I would download them and make up your own checklists. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr4zwj2lgdo
No one is seeing this as an overnight occurrence, and countries are getting ready in Europe for this. Germany, where I am located is notifying businesses of their plans, but not yet the civilians. I expect that to come soon though. This is what I have from the US government. I know that my local bomb shelter in a firehouse 3 blocks from my house is not prepared. I do not live near a subway station either. This is what I have from the US, which I found on my own. ready.gov_nuclear-explosion-hazard-info-sheet.pdf
To anyone who is informed a nuclear war makes no sense at any realistic level. We have known since the 1980s that a large scale nuclear war will bring on a severe and long lasting reduction of temperatures ("Nuclear Winter") that will wipe out most if not all life on the planet. The studies have been recently updated by Alan Robock and his colleagues using modern climate codes, with results that not only ratified the earlier findings but extended them to smaller conflicts - such as an India-Pakistan war.
The UN recently passed a resolution to further study the problem. Only one nuclear power (Surprise! the PRC) voted in favor, Russia, France and the UK voted against, and the remaining nuclear culprits (US, Israel, India, Pakistan, DPRK) abstained. Message: Virtually none of the nuclear armed states want the truth to be widely known.
Agreed! While Trump, who is a "Vollidiot," in German, when it comes to all things military as explained by the last people who worked with him, and had to keep him from pushing the red button when angered by North Korea, and sounded like a big child when it comes to anything, but that is not the kind of maniac Putin appears to be. I do not see him starting nuclear war on the continent where he is also living. Coming out of his bunkers to no one left, is not going to help him to enjoy his power when no one is left to serve him and no one is there whom he can lord it over.
I always translate it as "complete and total idiot." I know the words are redundant, but gives the kind of derisive emphasis I feel it has. I used it once when driving to refer to another who was weaving around while talking on it. My daughter heard me from her car seat in back and said, "mama don't swear in front of me!" So, I switched to saying, "that is a ba-a-a-a-d driver!" She did not like that much better.
That is always possible. I know when they claim Ukraine is using them it is interpreted as signaling that they will use them. Since Putin has already been using all kinds of horrid things, as well as rape, torture and murder of captured soldiers, and stealing children to try to turn them into Russians there is no reason to think he would not try to. Things will be different when Trump is in. Up until now Biden has presented a deterrent in that the USA was always a threat.
The Nuremberg trials need to start with George Bush and his administration. Their grandiose fantasies were no different than Putin's. Attacking Iraq for NO REASON. Made up assumprtions and lies.
Thousands of loves lost for NOTHING and the Middle east destabilized.
I mean, would it result in mutual destruction when Putin's puppet is installed as the leader of the country with the largest nuclear arsenal? Really, I am not sure about this.
The demise of Ukraine will lead to Russia "marching" through the Baltic States, Moldova & Poland for a start. The Baltic States & Poland are members of NATO, so when one member is attacked "ALL" members come to the aid of the country that was attacked. We saw that after 9/11 when our allies sent troops to aid us in finding & defeating Al Qaida. How quickly we forget the deaths of our allies that participated in the "War Against Terrorism" which gave Bush Jr his excuse to invade Iraq with some phoney intelligence.
We all know trump abandons Allies so he will not respond to Putin's aggression. And my guess is that Taiwan means nothing to trump. I bet he couldn't find it on a map with flashing arrows pointing at it!
I have another thought when it comes to Asia, what about North Korea. Kim has already been sabre-rattilng along the DMZ & missile launches. Haven't we heard "rumors" that he may be planning a nuclear test? And once again we all know how trump feels about support for South Korea, they don't pay us enough isn't that the message? So pretty sure the South Koreans will be left to fend for themselves. The US has a history of abandoning allied groups that we promised we'd help if they fought for us so I see no reason to think that will change under President Transaction!
I would like to add the Gazans who have been subjected to annihilation since October, 2023, and not for the first time.
'SURVIVING GAZA By SAMAR ABU ELOUF and ERIC NAGOURNEY
(NYTimes, excerpts)
'Amputations. Disfiguration. Brain damage. Their injuries are life-changing.
'Mahmoud Ajjour is among the relatively small number of badly wounded Gazans who have survived a war that has killed tens of thousands.'
'The 9-year-old boy lost his arms as his family was fleeing Israeli shelling, his mother, Noor Ajjour, says. Now, he can do little for himself.'
“Mama, scratch my hair, scratch my nose,” 'he asks'.
'Mahmoud made it out for medical treatment in Qatar, where The New York Times photographed and interviewed him and other patients.'
'They are alive — even if some are not sure they still want to be.'
'The Israeli military says that it has taken measures to limit civilian harm as it tries to defeat the militants, but its campaign has taken a staggering toll on Palestinians. Of the tens of thousands killed in the Israeli bombardment and invasion, Gazan health officials estimate about 15,000 were children.'
'We are children, and my mind cannot comprehend that this has happened to me.'
Once again, I felt called to write to my NY Senators Schumer and Gillibrand with my opinion, informed by today's newsletter by Professor Snyder:
Dear Chuck,
I absolutely, completely support Ukraine in their resistance to Putin's illegal invasion of their country.
Once again, Tim Snyder makes quite clear the stakes we as freedom-loving Americans face in the Russo-Ukraine War. From his substack newsletter:
It would be bad if there were a third world war. That is a reasonable fear to have. By resisting Russia, Ukrainians are making every scenario for such a catastrophe less likely. On the scale of our world, the Ukrainians are the firemen [putting out a fire in our neighbor's house]. They are keeping the rest of us safe. It makes no sense to blame them for Russia's invasion, nor to hinder them from doing their job. [Today's full newsletter included below.]
I remember reading about Neville Chamberlain meeting with Adolf Hitler in 1938, signing the Munich Agreement, which ceded the Sudetenland region to Adolf Hitler. He proclaimed, "Peace in our time." A year later, Hitler invaded peaceful Poland, and Chamberlain had to declare war on Germany. (see Chamberlain's Wikipedia entry here).
Appeasement does not work. If you give in to bullies, they think they can go on to bully even more.
I know that Trump admires "strongmen" like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Victor Orbán, and Kim Jung Un. Trump is likely to pursue a policy of appeasement and claim "peace in our time."
Please use your position in the Senate to resist in every way Trump's efforts to give Putin what he wants. A vigorous resistance is the best way to ensure peace.
While I agree 100% that we must support Ukraine, those of us who are living in Europe are not sure what tactic Trump will take. Will he join Putin in making War on NATO countries after pulling the US out of it? I would think if anything, Trump would pull US troops from Europe and put them into Asia in order to be more ready for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, since China is the enemy that both the Trump and the rest of the Republicans believe is the biggest rival to the US.
This is not true of Russia, although we could see in the reverse that Russia, by testing out the US and EU support of Ukraine is helping China and North Korea to test our resolve. With Trump as president we shall see whether his natural inclinations to gravitate to other illiberal leaders is in sinc with the desires of his backers to destroy the US. Do you think these people want to be subjects of Russia or China if Trump destroys our military?
You have pointed out how Trump's appointments are Russian assets in the sense that they either do or will support Russian talking points that Trump is spreading. So, what do you think Trump will do? Also, what will the US military do? A president who has militia behind him but not the US military does not have much power at all. Does Trump assume that mistreating the US military will cause them to fall in line behind him? Does he assume if he places loyalist leaders in power in the military that the rest will fall behind them? I believe he does. I'm not so sure. Do the people in the military want to go from being a part of the most powerful military in the world, to just being a corrupt and ineffective fighting force? We shall see.
Great questions. And I wonder how the EU will respond if and when Trump abandons you, if even for a brief time. Somehow, those of us in the U.S. who know he's wrong have to stand together with those in the rest of Europe and elsewhere who also know he's wrong.
Dee I agree. I am going to be in the US soon enough. But, will be back in Europe after the holidays, since I have things here that I need to take care of. The American voters have let us down by voting for Trump or not voting when eligible, but I am still counting on the US military to be true to the red, white and blue. At least I am hoping this is going to be true.
The power and beauty of the simplicity of logic, as you so often show us. Thank you again, Dr. Snyder for your profoundly important work.
That your words fall on so many deaf ears is a tragedy. And the way to stop that is for all of us to keep repeating your words over and over, everywhere.
My concern here is not that Dr. Snyder is wrong about the odds of nuclear power consciously starting a nuclear war, but that having lived through those 13 awful days in October of 1962, I also know that it could be triggered by an accident, a computer glitch, or a lunatic with too free a hand on a nuclear trigger. Fail Safe and Dr. Strangelove notwithstanding, the amount of time in which the leaders of the nuclear powers would have to react to such a moment is so compact and fraught that an overreaction is more than possible.
One only need read the story of LT Colonel Stanislov Petrov to know that if someone other than himself at been at that point of decision at that moment, we might not be here now.
As someone who as a member of the Physicists Coallition for Nuclear Threat Reduction, the Arms Control Association, and the Union of Concerned Scientists, I add my "Amen" to Professor Snyder's statements on nuclear war. Though we strive for nuclear disarmament, we realize that the goal will only be arrived in steps of gradual reductions and through prevention of proliferation. Ukraine has demonstrated over and over the vacuousness of Putin's threats.
The first mistake the US made with respect to Ukraine and nuclear weapons is by not fulfilling the promise we made to Ukraine in 1994 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum . The second mistake that we are making is the completely, totally, absolutely unnecessary, destabilizing and provocative expansion of our own nuclear war fighting - scratch that - nuclear mutual suicide - capability by funding the Sentinel ICBM program. Fortunately, we can remedy both of these mistakes. But will we?
Thank you for another excellent post. The brave people of Ukraine are defending the world with their lives. The tragic course for American is being set by Reconstructionists, Dominionists and other "Christian" Nationalists. Alas. Alas. Alas. I fear where this will lead........
Yup I’m driving an ambulance to Ukraine shortly to drop off there for onward delivery to the front. It’s the least I can do now T is going to let Ukraine twist in the wind. I adopted some Afghan refugees to help them escape the country 2 years ago again as my protest then against the sheer idiocy, ignorance, arrogance and irresponsibility of the American government.
That was a splendid piece. Of course, other global areas in the throes of conflict could be mentioned. The Middle East remains more than a tinder box. It is difficult to recall the promise of the Arab Spring now when Syria, for example, is almost wiped off the map. The Israeli pounding of Palestinian supporters in Gaza and Lebanon is heartbreaking because of collateral damage, though the initial terrorist attack was indeed criminal. And on and on it goes at various points of the map and in every continent. Then, of course, there is the US and all the uncertainties of Trump and his reality show casting to form his cabinet. Are these conflicts the actual tinder for WW3?
I agree we should be staunch in our support for Ukraine. I wish we could support others in the world who merely ask for justice and dignity.
And I would add in Sudan, embroiled in yet another civil war, and Haiti, both on fire again. And also so painful to see. We cannot give up and turn away. Our time and attention now will make a difference, as Dr. Snyder points out, but waiting and turning away now will mean a much, much larger effort will be required later.
I'm concerned not only about WW3, but about whether our country will be on the side of the liberal democratic countries or on the side of the fascists and autocrats. The way things are going, it looks like the EU will have to go it alone in defense of democracy. The BRIC countries and the U.S. are not allies, but the Trump regime will collude with Russia, and Russia is already reliant on China and North Korea for military support. It's a big mess that's brewing. Our country's continued tolerance of the war crimes committed by Israel will just get worse under Trump as well. Ugliness and inhuman tragedy seem unavoidable. What does a moral person choose to do about it?
Beautifully written. You said it very powerfully with this thought: it’s very dangerous to believe that because we’re American, everything will work itself out. We could walk blindly into Russian victory.
Just found a map of Ukraine from 1648 made by a Frenchman, Guillaume Le Vasseur de Beauplan, , with the title (translated) "A general outline of the desert plains commonly known as Ukraina : with the adjacent provinces." Beauplan also wrote a book about Ukraine identified as "Ukraine," and not by any confusing archaic title or Imperial euphemisms. The book title is "Description d'Ukraine" (1651). So, once again, not "Putin's shit" in spite of the Russian disinformation amplified by ignorant Americans.
(See some maps and title page of the book in the link below, if it works. Also on Wikipedia.)
Thank you for this cogent analysis. Americans MUST continue to support Ukraine and resist Russia's invasion. A negotiated peace may be near at hand, but it cannot be on Russian terms - only on Ukraine's terms, since it is the victim in this war.
In Germany and Austria, and perhaps elsewhere as well, too many people appear to think that crying "peace" and stopping arms sales or shipments will actually make peace. I keep hearing calls for "negotiations," but it's never clear to me with whom can be "negotiated" exactly, given that Putin is well known for never keeping his word in such negotiations - see Minsk I and II.
However, I'm not sure that anxiety is all that's at work here, as Timothy Snyder appears to suggest. More likely in my view is that these "peaceniks" (1) have bought the long-debunked line that NATO "provoked" Putin by accepting East European requests for membership, and (2) have bought into an entirely moralistic viewpoint that is non- or even anti-political, and therefore have no clue about what is actually going on or at stake.
Unfortunately, "the West" (meaning BOTH the US AND the EU) opted early on for a pseudo-strategy with two elements: (1) Let's you and him fight, so we can avoid direct engagement; (2) you (Ukraine) get to fight with one hand tied behind your back. I tried this out on a French political scientist who spoke in Vienna some time ago. She looked upset at my blunt wording, but then conceded that I had a point.
The simple fact is that "the West" already became a party to this war when they started sending weapons, but the commitment has been too half-hearted to assure the Ukrainian victory that Timothy Snyder (and I) sincerely wish.
It's such a grave mistake to distinguish between morality and politics, as if politics cannot be righteous, or as if morality could not be politically motivated or manipulated.
Of course morality has something to do with politics, and vice versa, but what, exactly turns out to be exceedingly variable. The "grave mistake", IMHO, is to believe that politics understood as the acquisition, defense and maintenance of power, can be subjected to "moral principles" that are usually derived from non- or extrapolitical sources. People who advocate such views tend to have very little idea of how politics actually works, or to want politics to "work" differently. Good luck with that.
Read my "morality" as shared values within society. A ruling class claiming legitimacy has to also claim to uphold the values of the people who are its subjects. A legitimate regime is one that serves the people as they wish it to. This is not naive. It is what we need our rulers to be for us.
And what "shared values" might those be? A polarized society might still share some values, but it would appear that "the ruling class" in the USA is at least as deeply divided in this respect as the voters appear to be. Take "freedom," for example. The word sounds great as the name of a "shared value", but once you start asking people what they actually mean when they use it, the divergences come out, at times quite clearly. BTW, this particular "shared (or not shared) value" has little to do with "morality" in the ordinary sense of the term.
Unfortunately, the incoming administration has a number of Evangelicals who want to bring about a "second coming of Christ," and see any amount of death, destruction, and suffering as bringing us closer to that possibility. A good Substack source on this for further reading is author Andra Watkins.
Yes, I subscribe to Andra Watkins and have read Project 2025. Unfortunately the drafters of the Blueprint for Trump's government are Christian Nationalists, and want to destroy before rebuilding, as they see this as the most efficient way to get across their goals. The ultimate goal is to do what they think is God's bidding as they see it, without the pesky Constitution getting in the way on their way to Heaven.
Here is a link she has to explain what seem like crazy behaviors to us. I agree CNs want to turn the US into a CN theocracy and end their days going out in glory. However, though the military has Christian Nationalists in it, and additional White Supremacist militia members, I don't see that as being the majority of the military. I am hoping that I have not miscalculated on this. Time will tell. However, Andra Watkins, CN expert explains why CNs want to destroy the US. https://open.substack.com/pub/andrawatkins/p/christian-nationalists-and-the-end-8b7?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
For years now, especially since the Tea Party, this group has said that it "want[s] to destroy before rebuilding." During the budget crisis in 2011 some of them said, "Yes, things will be bad for a while if the US defaults on its debt, but we will come back even stronger." But it won't. In the end, the leaders of this group might have nothing left to govern, and they could lose their vast wealth. The US is not surrounded by a cordon sanitaire. No country is; no country lives outside of history. The fantasy of US exceptionalism--that terrible things can happen to us and we will always spring back--is made of narcissism, greed, and foolishness.
I am saying that too. I believe we are in the middle of a world war already, it is a technology war. The war of disinformation on information. I think all countries should be taking it much more seriously and not hiding behind ideas like free speech. Those are ideas developed before mass global disinformation campaigns were capable of existing and since we have this now, we should be rethinking our approach and taking this on as a battle.
Musk and his ilk are who are planning to "come back even stronger." Of course, they will be coming back to catastrophe all around them....
Commenting to say how much I appreciate your posts Linda.
Thanks PS.
How many times have we heard the CN kristofascists expound on the lunacy of Islamic extremism? The CNs are every bit as fanatical as their Islamic counterparts and they have much better weapons! They can afford to take the high road because they have the most powerful country/military on this planet in their corner.
I agree CNs want to turn the US into a CN theocracy and end their days going out in glory. However, though the military has Christian Nationalists in it, and additional White Supremacist militia members, I don't see that as being the majority of the military. I am hoping that I have not miscalculated on this. Time will tell. However, Andra Watkins, CN expert explains why CNs want to destroy the US. https://open.substack.com/pub/andrawatkins/p/christian-nationalists-and-the-end-8b7?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
I agree CNs want to turn the US into a CN theocracy and end their days going out in glory. However, though the military has Christian Nationalists in it, and additional White Supremacist militia members, I don't see that as being the majority of the military. I am hoping that I have not miscalculated on this. Time will tell. However, Andra Watkins, CN expert explains why CNs want to destroy the US. https://open.substack.com/pub/andrawatkins/p/christian-nationalists-and-the-end-8b7?r=f0qfn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
One of the problems is the Trump voters who don't believe in Project 2025....
Roxanne, I suspect that most of them never heard of it because it is not in their media loops. I know a lot of people who don't know about it.
Yes. They were shielded from much of the Trump reality -- they voted for an image.
I come from a community filled with information. Real independent book stores, lectures and discussions available to attend all the time, and a major city which has 2 citywide, and many local newspapers, including in my own community. I am not forced to get all my information from social media, or the internet. I can imagine what that would be like. Also, I still like to read, as do others on these Substacks. I have many friends who do not. At least some listen to books on tape, others do not even do that. It is YouTube for all their media attention.
Can I move where you are?
Remember those who said the same thing when Bush invaded Iraq, that is was God’s will and it would bring about a cornucopia of good things. Evangelical support for Bush was thru the roof at that time. It’s funny isn’t it, these evangelicals still seem to be searching for an earthly savior. Hmmm
It's curious how little bothered many evangelicals are by actions that often lead to the shedding of blood. I meant --- the blood of others.
But they are “pro-life,”
An irony that may not be apparent to all
Yes, Jamae, "when Bush invaded Iraq," it "was God’s will" -- but only that the fossil fuel rapists should all the more profit.
Thus we have the Fossil Fuel God(s) Almighty. Everyone bends down to it in pursuit of the second god, the Almighty Dollar.
The Golden Calf
Christians who don't remember the Golden Calf . . . nor the sin of pride (though I'm not sure of the scriptural references for that). I've been reading some very intellectual (and not so intellectual) Kabbalah lately and I love this formulation . . . that the 613 commandments in Torah can be reduced numerologically (yeah) to the 10, which reduce numerologically to the 1. Numerology is just fun, but I concur with the principle. And so, if one is greedy above all else one cannot possibly be a monotheist.
Humans need only one "law” or commandment: Do not do unto others what you would not have others do unto you.
It's fundamentally self-interest, but the only kind that makes the world better.
I think it's "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you".
Actually, it was the Crusaders who originated God's Will. Look how THAT turned out.
cult
They're going to be sorely disappointed.
Isnt this 2nd coming to be peace on earth?
Sorry, Alexander, but the Rapture has nothing to do with peace or the Earth.
Oh
Why would j.christ come back then? :)
To pay homage to and bask in the light of His Flatulence, the orange one?
As j.c.1 used to say “Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.” so the goldbiblewatchsneaking oaf darkens all and sundry.
Excellent as always, thank you.
The nuke threats seem to work. But if you want to reality check for your sanity, ask yourself if nuclear war makes any sense for Russia given its alternatives. Russian propaganda would like the West to believe we can not allow Ukraine to fight back fairly or else Russia would deploy nukes against the West. This is absolutely absurd of course.
Play it out in your head. Russia starts nuclear war and it is horrifying of course. But it also results in mutual destruction. A whole lot of it. Within Russia too.
Now, what are Russia’s alternatives to this horrible fate. Well, they don’t have to start nuclear war. Its pretty simple. Given they are the aggressors, have invaded and can withdraw at will, its really fucking clear they are bluffing.
For nuclear war to make sense for Russia, it would need to be truly threatened with an equal or greater amount of destruction.
The nuke threats are not working on Ukraine, or on Scandinavian countries. They are preparing for a war extension and sending out plans to their people. All of them have updated their emergency preparedness brochures, which includes nuclear and cyber attacks. There are links to the 4 brochures in this article. All in English. I would download them and make up your own checklists. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr4zwj2lgdo
No one is seeing this as an overnight occurrence, and countries are getting ready in Europe for this. Germany, where I am located is notifying businesses of their plans, but not yet the civilians. I expect that to come soon though. This is what I have from the US government. I know that my local bomb shelter in a firehouse 3 blocks from my house is not prepared. I do not live near a subway station either. This is what I have from the US, which I found on my own. ready.gov_nuclear-explosion-hazard-info-sheet.pdf
To anyone who is informed a nuclear war makes no sense at any realistic level. We have known since the 1980s that a large scale nuclear war will bring on a severe and long lasting reduction of temperatures ("Nuclear Winter") that will wipe out most if not all life on the planet. The studies have been recently updated by Alan Robock and his colleagues using modern climate codes, with results that not only ratified the earlier findings but extended them to smaller conflicts - such as an India-Pakistan war.
The UN recently passed a resolution to further study the problem. Only one nuclear power (Surprise! the PRC) voted in favor, Russia, France and the UK voted against, and the remaining nuclear culprits (US, Israel, India, Pakistan, DPRK) abstained. Message: Virtually none of the nuclear armed states want the truth to be widely known.
Comrade Putin doesn’t want nuclear war as he has nowhere to go, except for DPRK 😸
Agreed! While Trump, who is a "Vollidiot," in German, when it comes to all things military as explained by the last people who worked with him, and had to keep him from pushing the red button when angered by North Korea, and sounded like a big child when it comes to anything, but that is not the kind of maniac Putin appears to be. I do not see him starting nuclear war on the continent where he is also living. Coming out of his bunkers to no one left, is not going to help him to enjoy his power when no one is left to serve him and no one is there whom he can lord it over.
Vollidiot bedeutet "Complete idiot" auf englisch. Deutsch: So eine schöne Sprache!
I always translate it as "complete and total idiot." I know the words are redundant, but gives the kind of derisive emphasis I feel it has. I used it once when driving to refer to another who was weaving around while talking on it. My daughter heard me from her car seat in back and said, "mama don't swear in front of me!" So, I switched to saying, "that is a ba-a-a-a-d driver!" She did not like that much better.
Putin would go back to the Stone Age where he belongs. He could be tempted to use dirty bombs, however.
I know not with what weapons WWIII will be fought, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones ☮️ Albert Einstein
That is always possible. I know when they claim Ukraine is using them it is interpreted as signaling that they will use them. Since Putin has already been using all kinds of horrid things, as well as rape, torture and murder of captured soldiers, and stealing children to try to turn them into Russians there is no reason to think he would not try to. Things will be different when Trump is in. Up until now Biden has presented a deterrent in that the USA was always a threat.
Nuremberg trials need to rev up again after this bloody war. #WarCriminal
The Nuremberg trials need to start with George Bush and his administration. Their grandiose fantasies were no different than Putin's. Attacking Iraq for NO REASON. Made up assumprtions and lies.
Thousands of loves lost for NOTHING and the Middle east destabilized.
Would it, though? With Trump in the Whitehouse? IDK.
Yes, even with Trump in the white house, there are other nuclear armed NATO powers that would flatten Russia in a nuclear war.
I’m certain Putin would avoid this fate with any number of easy alternatives
I mean, would it result in mutual destruction when Putin's puppet is installed as the leader of the country with the largest nuclear arsenal? Really, I am not sure about this.
You don’t think hundreds of nukes is enough?
The demise of Ukraine will lead to Russia "marching" through the Baltic States, Moldova & Poland for a start. The Baltic States & Poland are members of NATO, so when one member is attacked "ALL" members come to the aid of the country that was attacked. We saw that after 9/11 when our allies sent troops to aid us in finding & defeating Al Qaida. How quickly we forget the deaths of our allies that participated in the "War Against Terrorism" which gave Bush Jr his excuse to invade Iraq with some phoney intelligence.
We all know trump abandons Allies so he will not respond to Putin's aggression. And my guess is that Taiwan means nothing to trump. I bet he couldn't find it on a map with flashing arrows pointing at it!
I have another thought when it comes to Asia, what about North Korea. Kim has already been sabre-rattilng along the DMZ & missile launches. Haven't we heard "rumors" that he may be planning a nuclear test? And once again we all know how trump feels about support for South Korea, they don't pay us enough isn't that the message? So pretty sure the South Koreans will be left to fend for themselves. The US has a history of abandoning allied groups that we promised we'd help if they fought for us so I see no reason to think that will change under President Transaction!
I would like to add the Gazans who have been subjected to annihilation since October, 2023, and not for the first time.
'SURVIVING GAZA By SAMAR ABU ELOUF and ERIC NAGOURNEY
(NYTimes, excerpts)
'Amputations. Disfiguration. Brain damage. Their injuries are life-changing.
'Mahmoud Ajjour is among the relatively small number of badly wounded Gazans who have survived a war that has killed tens of thousands.'
'The 9-year-old boy lost his arms as his family was fleeing Israeli shelling, his mother, Noor Ajjour, says. Now, he can do little for himself.'
“Mama, scratch my hair, scratch my nose,” 'he asks'.
'Mahmoud made it out for medical treatment in Qatar, where The New York Times photographed and interviewed him and other patients.'
'They are alive — even if some are not sure they still want to be.'
'The Israeli military says that it has taken measures to limit civilian harm as it tries to defeat the militants, but its campaign has taken a staggering toll on Palestinians. Of the tens of thousands killed in the Israeli bombardment and invasion, Gazan health officials estimate about 15,000 were children.'
'We are children, and my mind cannot comprehend that this has happened to me.'
___Ruba Abu Jibba
It's awful. Horrorific. It will leave terrible scars on our shared humanity. Solidarity and sympathy, are needed from everywhere.
Thank you! Your care, Heather, and voice can make a difference.
Once again, I felt called to write to my NY Senators Schumer and Gillibrand with my opinion, informed by today's newsletter by Professor Snyder:
Dear Chuck,
I absolutely, completely support Ukraine in their resistance to Putin's illegal invasion of their country.
Once again, Tim Snyder makes quite clear the stakes we as freedom-loving Americans face in the Russo-Ukraine War. From his substack newsletter:
It would be bad if there were a third world war. That is a reasonable fear to have. By resisting Russia, Ukrainians are making every scenario for such a catastrophe less likely. On the scale of our world, the Ukrainians are the firemen [putting out a fire in our neighbor's house]. They are keeping the rest of us safe. It makes no sense to blame them for Russia's invasion, nor to hinder them from doing their job. [Today's full newsletter included below.]
I remember reading about Neville Chamberlain meeting with Adolf Hitler in 1938, signing the Munich Agreement, which ceded the Sudetenland region to Adolf Hitler. He proclaimed, "Peace in our time." A year later, Hitler invaded peaceful Poland, and Chamberlain had to declare war on Germany. (see Chamberlain's Wikipedia entry here).
Appeasement does not work. If you give in to bullies, they think they can go on to bully even more.
I know that Trump admires "strongmen" like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Victor Orbán, and Kim Jung Un. Trump is likely to pursue a policy of appeasement and claim "peace in our time."
Please use your position in the Senate to resist in every way Trump's efforts to give Putin what he wants. A vigorous resistance is the best way to ensure peace.
Respectfully submitted,
Bob Stromberg
Round Lake, NY
Cell: (518) 791-9708
@rlsnys on BlueSky
While I agree 100% that we must support Ukraine, those of us who are living in Europe are not sure what tactic Trump will take. Will he join Putin in making War on NATO countries after pulling the US out of it? I would think if anything, Trump would pull US troops from Europe and put them into Asia in order to be more ready for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, since China is the enemy that both the Trump and the rest of the Republicans believe is the biggest rival to the US.
This is not true of Russia, although we could see in the reverse that Russia, by testing out the US and EU support of Ukraine is helping China and North Korea to test our resolve. With Trump as president we shall see whether his natural inclinations to gravitate to other illiberal leaders is in sinc with the desires of his backers to destroy the US. Do you think these people want to be subjects of Russia or China if Trump destroys our military?
You have pointed out how Trump's appointments are Russian assets in the sense that they either do or will support Russian talking points that Trump is spreading. So, what do you think Trump will do? Also, what will the US military do? A president who has militia behind him but not the US military does not have much power at all. Does Trump assume that mistreating the US military will cause them to fall in line behind him? Does he assume if he places loyalist leaders in power in the military that the rest will fall behind them? I believe he does. I'm not so sure. Do the people in the military want to go from being a part of the most powerful military in the world, to just being a corrupt and ineffective fighting force? We shall see.
Great questions. And I wonder how the EU will respond if and when Trump abandons you, if even for a brief time. Somehow, those of us in the U.S. who know he's wrong have to stand together with those in the rest of Europe and elsewhere who also know he's wrong.
Dee I agree. I am going to be in the US soon enough. But, will be back in Europe after the holidays, since I have things here that I need to take care of. The American voters have let us down by voting for Trump or not voting when eligible, but I am still counting on the US military to be true to the red, white and blue. At least I am hoping this is going to be true.
I doubt Trump would stop Xi in Taiwan anymore than he would stop Putin. He’s an America First isolationist.
Right now it is up to the EU to support Ukraine.
The power and beauty of the simplicity of logic, as you so often show us. Thank you again, Dr. Snyder for your profoundly important work.
That your words fall on so many deaf ears is a tragedy. And the way to stop that is for all of us to keep repeating your words over and over, everywhere.
My concern here is not that Dr. Snyder is wrong about the odds of nuclear power consciously starting a nuclear war, but that having lived through those 13 awful days in October of 1962, I also know that it could be triggered by an accident, a computer glitch, or a lunatic with too free a hand on a nuclear trigger. Fail Safe and Dr. Strangelove notwithstanding, the amount of time in which the leaders of the nuclear powers would have to react to such a moment is so compact and fraught that an overreaction is more than possible.
One only need read the story of LT Colonel Stanislov Petrov to know that if someone other than himself at been at that point of decision at that moment, we might not be here now.
Thank you for name of the officer. I remember the incident---yes, if not for him........
As someone who as a member of the Physicists Coallition for Nuclear Threat Reduction, the Arms Control Association, and the Union of Concerned Scientists, I add my "Amen" to Professor Snyder's statements on nuclear war. Though we strive for nuclear disarmament, we realize that the goal will only be arrived in steps of gradual reductions and through prevention of proliferation. Ukraine has demonstrated over and over the vacuousness of Putin's threats.
The first mistake the US made with respect to Ukraine and nuclear weapons is by not fulfilling the promise we made to Ukraine in 1994 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum . The second mistake that we are making is the completely, totally, absolutely unnecessary, destabilizing and provocative expansion of our own nuclear war fighting - scratch that - nuclear mutual suicide - capability by funding the Sentinel ICBM program. Fortunately, we can remedy both of these mistakes. But will we?
Thank you for another excellent post. The brave people of Ukraine are defending the world with their lives. The tragic course for American is being set by Reconstructionists, Dominionists and other "Christian" Nationalists. Alas. Alas. Alas. I fear where this will lead........
Yup I’m driving an ambulance to Ukraine shortly to drop off there for onward delivery to the front. It’s the least I can do now T is going to let Ukraine twist in the wind. I adopted some Afghan refugees to help them escape the country 2 years ago again as my protest then against the sheer idiocy, ignorance, arrogance and irresponsibility of the American government.
That was a splendid piece. Of course, other global areas in the throes of conflict could be mentioned. The Middle East remains more than a tinder box. It is difficult to recall the promise of the Arab Spring now when Syria, for example, is almost wiped off the map. The Israeli pounding of Palestinian supporters in Gaza and Lebanon is heartbreaking because of collateral damage, though the initial terrorist attack was indeed criminal. And on and on it goes at various points of the map and in every continent. Then, of course, there is the US and all the uncertainties of Trump and his reality show casting to form his cabinet. Are these conflicts the actual tinder for WW3?
I agree we should be staunch in our support for Ukraine. I wish we could support others in the world who merely ask for justice and dignity.
And I would add in Sudan, embroiled in yet another civil war, and Haiti, both on fire again. And also so painful to see. We cannot give up and turn away. Our time and attention now will make a difference, as Dr. Snyder points out, but waiting and turning away now will mean a much, much larger effort will be required later.
I'm concerned not only about WW3, but about whether our country will be on the side of the liberal democratic countries or on the side of the fascists and autocrats. The way things are going, it looks like the EU will have to go it alone in defense of democracy. The BRIC countries and the U.S. are not allies, but the Trump regime will collude with Russia, and Russia is already reliant on China and North Korea for military support. It's a big mess that's brewing. Our country's continued tolerance of the war crimes committed by Israel will just get worse under Trump as well. Ugliness and inhuman tragedy seem unavoidable. What does a moral person choose to do about it?
Beautifully written. You said it very powerfully with this thought: it’s very dangerous to believe that because we’re American, everything will work itself out. We could walk blindly into Russian victory.
Just found a map of Ukraine from 1648 made by a Frenchman, Guillaume Le Vasseur de Beauplan, , with the title (translated) "A general outline of the desert plains commonly known as Ukraina : with the adjacent provinces." Beauplan also wrote a book about Ukraine identified as "Ukraine," and not by any confusing archaic title or Imperial euphemisms. The book title is "Description d'Ukraine" (1651). So, once again, not "Putin's shit" in spite of the Russian disinformation amplified by ignorant Americans.
(See some maps and title page of the book in the link below, if it works. Also on Wikipedia.)
https://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages%5CB%5CE%5CBeauplanGuillaumeLeVasseurde.htm
Thank you for this cogent analysis. Americans MUST continue to support Ukraine and resist Russia's invasion. A negotiated peace may be near at hand, but it cannot be on Russian terms - only on Ukraine's terms, since it is the victim in this war.
The problem is that Americans who support Trump also support Russia. It's insanity.
In Germany and Austria, and perhaps elsewhere as well, too many people appear to think that crying "peace" and stopping arms sales or shipments will actually make peace. I keep hearing calls for "negotiations," but it's never clear to me with whom can be "negotiated" exactly, given that Putin is well known for never keeping his word in such negotiations - see Minsk I and II.
However, I'm not sure that anxiety is all that's at work here, as Timothy Snyder appears to suggest. More likely in my view is that these "peaceniks" (1) have bought the long-debunked line that NATO "provoked" Putin by accepting East European requests for membership, and (2) have bought into an entirely moralistic viewpoint that is non- or even anti-political, and therefore have no clue about what is actually going on or at stake.
Unfortunately, "the West" (meaning BOTH the US AND the EU) opted early on for a pseudo-strategy with two elements: (1) Let's you and him fight, so we can avoid direct engagement; (2) you (Ukraine) get to fight with one hand tied behind your back. I tried this out on a French political scientist who spoke in Vienna some time ago. She looked upset at my blunt wording, but then conceded that I had a point.
The simple fact is that "the West" already became a party to this war when they started sending weapons, but the commitment has been too half-hearted to assure the Ukrainian victory that Timothy Snyder (and I) sincerely wish.
It's such a grave mistake to distinguish between morality and politics, as if politics cannot be righteous, or as if morality could not be politically motivated or manipulated.
Of course morality has something to do with politics, and vice versa, but what, exactly turns out to be exceedingly variable. The "grave mistake", IMHO, is to believe that politics understood as the acquisition, defense and maintenance of power, can be subjected to "moral principles" that are usually derived from non- or extrapolitical sources. People who advocate such views tend to have very little idea of how politics actually works, or to want politics to "work" differently. Good luck with that.
Read my "morality" as shared values within society. A ruling class claiming legitimacy has to also claim to uphold the values of the people who are its subjects. A legitimate regime is one that serves the people as they wish it to. This is not naive. It is what we need our rulers to be for us.
And what "shared values" might those be? A polarized society might still share some values, but it would appear that "the ruling class" in the USA is at least as deeply divided in this respect as the voters appear to be. Take "freedom," for example. The word sounds great as the name of a "shared value", but once you start asking people what they actually mean when they use it, the divergences come out, at times quite clearly. BTW, this particular "shared (or not shared) value" has little to do with "morality" in the ordinary sense of the term.
Freedom has little to do with morality? Please explain. Thank you.