Snyder maps the coup scenarios correctly. Here’s the behavioral reality:
Trump doesn’t need coherent strategy. He just needs everyone else to freeze while he improvises.
The five scenarios share one mechanic: they require elites willing to break norms and a public uncertain enough not to resist immediately.
From a behavioral economics perspective this is the power of defaults. Most people, including officials, follow established procedures unless given clear reasons not to. Coups work by creating enough ambiguity that people default to compliance while “waiting to see what happens.”
Trump’s advantage isn’t brilliance, it’s shamelessness. He’ll try all five scenarios simultaneously, whichever generates momentum. The 50% defense budget increase is a bribe for irregular order compliance.
The terrorism scenario is his best bet because it’s Putin’s proven playbook. 1999 apartment bombings gave Putin emergency powers he never relinquished. Trump doesn’t need to execute it well, just create enough confusion that half the country believes his version long enough for emergency powers to operationalize.
The timing vulnerability: Two weeks before the election, when early voting shows blowout margins.
That’s when “terrorist threat requires postponement” or “can’t change leadership mid-crisis.”
What stops it: Active refusal, not anticipation alone. Governors ignoring postponement orders. Military following Constitution. Election officials counting votes regardless. People in streets before the attempt, not after.
Knowledge changes outcomes only if it translates to precommitment. Decide now what your red lines are and what you’ll do when crossed.
Otherwise we’ll watch the coup unfold while waiting for someone else to stop it.
I agree that terrorism is the likely scenario. The racist misogynist PedoFelon finds it easiest to blame the “others” - Black people, brown, yellow, red, Ukrainians, Canadians, Danes/Greenlanders and now Iranians. One blaring note: the Pedoligarch is such a bombastic insecure media whore that he’ll continue to post his social truths PRIOR to actions.
I REALLY wish the independent media and public STOP quoting CBS as we all know they, like fox and others, are quisling mouthpieces for the regime.
Seems it’s easier for this corrupt regime to call anyone, who gets harmed or killed, as a domestic terrorist. Better (to them) than referring to them as collateral damage. It’s all intolerable. And so wrong.
Actually the rapidly growing Christian Nationalist & Groyper movement, which represents the darkest, less-exposed but always operating aspect of the MAGA movement, is hatred of Jews. The anti-semitism has apocalyptic overtones because the mob who condemned Jesus to death were Jewish. It's the deepest through-line of hatred, I'd say. Brown people, so the logic goes, you just throw away; but persecute Jews and you are avenging Christ. [SIDE NOTE: that is NOT REAL CHRISTIANITY. But it's sadly a HUGE chunk of people who consider themselves christians. Huge].
Thank you, Johan, for the strategic wisdom from which we all need to learn in order to be effective in our resistance to any and all of the assaults on our constitutional republic that Timothy spells out for us that are already underway.
My bet for mitigating this earlier rather than later is a legal pursuit NOW on behalf of the PEOPLE:
This may be a JAG question - But now that the JAG office has been decimated, do you believe that there may be a civil class action possible on behalf of all of the American people in regards to the clear harms that inherently arise out of the firing of the top army general for so far, undisputed non-performance grounds by the secretary of defense? If so, is there ANY legal pathway for emergency SCOTUS involvement considering the clear hazard to the constitution and the country overall from the dangerous consolidation of power that this perceived loyalty-based decision acutely generates? Can the similar recent firings of other top military officers be a part of, and support the people’s standing in such a case?
Thanks for your suggestion, Laurel. If you subscribe to Glenn, could you perhaps relay it to him on behalf of the rest of us that are curious??
I have also written the following which admits the flaws in my knowledge and most likely, the post in general. But like us all, I’ll think of anything I can to preserve this democracy:
SCOTUS tends to default to the congress when there is a (in our time, “perceived”) political solution. Congress loves to support Judicial Remedies when they can point to (or their party pursues) a legal solution. Why can’t there be a parallel pursuit of both political and legal remedies - simultaneously? An impeachment in our time is clearly a ‘political’ issue by “LAWMAKERS.” A “class action” on behalf of ALL the people should, under the current circumstances, be understood to be based on both incurred AND impending harm to the public… Oh, the public (their pressure), yes, that seems to have proven to be the only correction - “in our time.” -Seems like it should work on both fronts - simultaneously. That would be a first, wouldn’t it?
- Not being a trained legal professional at all, legal experts will (appropriately) dismiss these words as NONSENSE - word salad logic of a pipe dream.
The most recent “No Kings” demonstrations are said to have pulled at least 8 and as many as 9 million Americans out of passivity and into the streets and public squares of the the U.S. Unfortunately, I fear that these ‘unprecedented’ numbers, reputed to be "the largest public demonstation in U.S. history" are still far too low, in aggregate, to effect the necessary changes — one being to apply an effective brake to the chaotic and unrestrained efforts of the Executive cabal that seeks to overthrow the republic.
The demonstrations aren't a solution. Rather they're a tactic for further organizing. One of the most remarkable parts of this last No Kings day of protests showed was that there were so many new places where resistance showed up -- in deep red districts. It's a sign that people are organizing everywhere, which is an indication that change can indeed happen in a country as vast and culturally diverse as ours.
Keep in mind that GenZ from what I have read, did not show up anywhere near in the numbers that older people showed up for No Kings. There needs to be a focus on messaging to that demographic in a way that they can receive - and accept as not being talked down to them as they already perceive is being done within the overwhelming information they receive through their information sources.
Older folks don’t have the time and attention restraints that younger ones do. We’ve raised our families, made our place in the world & don’t usually have to work long hours just to make ends meet. We also better understand what this political moment can lead to. So of course there are more retirees on the streets. I think more white people are taking our privileges more seriously and realize it’s safer for us to protest than for POC.
Everything you said is right on target. Since we need the numbers, perhaps some widespread messaging to the younger (admittedly screwed) generations might be something "eloquently" put like:
You Know Things Are Fucked Up, But You Have The Power THIS YEAR To Stop Them From Being Fucked Up Forever.....Your Vote Voice In November.
This is a very important point. I've been to every rally and, yes there are a lot of older people. I think one reason is that people in their 70s and 80s had parents and relatives that fought in WWII and know very well the fight against Fascism. At the last rally, more young people showed up which was heartening. However, we all need to do whatever we can to get the younger people informed and excited about saving their future and the future of democracy. Your suggested line below is a start.
Thank you, J. Busby. - In addition, the youngest generation voters have only really lived during the chaos years of the last 10 years plus the vitriol of the political years prior. Many don’t have the experience of better times considering needing 2 jobs and constantly receiving stressful and conflicting messages from their media and those in power.
I am working on other election protection preparations messaging and would like to start a geographically unrestricted collective or perhaps, an Indivisible Group that has such a model if anyone out there is interested… LET ME KNOW 😀
Engaging Gen Z voters effectively requires understanding their unique characteristics and preferences. Here are key strategies to encourage their turnout:
Authentic Communication
Be Genuine: Gen Z values authenticity. Communicate transparently about campaign goals and policies.
Show the Human Side: Highlight personal stories and real-life impacts of issues to connect emotionally.
Focus on Relevant Issues
Identify Key Concerns: Address issues that resonate with Gen Z, such as climate change, social justice, and education.
Educate on Candidates: Provide clear information about candidates' stances on these issues to help them make informed choices.
Utilize Social Media
Active Presence: Engage on platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter, where Gen Z spends much of their time.
Tailor Content: Customize messages for each platform to align with its culture and trends.
Encourage Digital Participation
Online Engagement: Offer virtual town halls, online volunteering, and digital activism events to facilitate participation.
Interactive Content: Create memes, GIFs, or PSAs that are shareable and relevant to their interests.
Build Community
Create Safe Spaces: Foster environments where young people can discuss issues and connect with peers and mentors.
Involve Influencers: Partner with trusted figures within their social circles to amplify messages and encourage participation.
I think using Indivisible would be a good was to organize. I'm also thinking of a rally with music and other attractions with speakers.
Wow Mr. Busby - It looks like Ai is (with its dangerous capabilities) rather ADVANTAGEOUS and on target here! Thank you again, and on the music front, here is just one 3- minute Anthem To Protect Immigrants & Elections that I wrote a few weeks ago. Check it out: https://philbarish.com/peoplesaurusrex
Agreed - and this is why expanded efforts by ALL OF US to disseminate what’s really going on per Dr. Snyder, is key to moving the leverage of the plank over the fulcrum point against the takeover.
We all know how he's been following "Putin's proven playbook" And that of Orban. But he needn't wait till two weeks before the election, as we all know now of the coming "blowout margins."
We all know of his intent, as T. Snyder has written here, to use "war to advance the impoverishment and peonization of everyone but a tiny elite."
All his life Donald has prospered by catering to this "tiny elite," to whom Donald's best pal Jeffrey for year trafficked underage girls, plus other nefarious mixes of money laundering, arms dealing, and drug shipments.
It's all totally brazen. His building now of concentration camps follows upon his organization of his own brown shirt terror corps -- ICE and CBP. His firing of gnome Pam Bondi at the DOJ cleverly buys him time to stave off further revelations of his criminality with pal Jeffrey.
Outstanding summation by Johan of Timothy Snyder's astounding exposure of Trump's headlong lurch toward a stranglehold on all of us. Thank you both. We really do have to stand together, now through the November Elections, and beyond. This is truly terrifying. It can go either way if we are not united, educated in what is happening, and utterly committed to STOP this evil, right here in our beloved United States of America.
Shamelessness is their superpower, hypocrisy is their badge of honor, and the emotional deterrents to evil behaviors melt away. We need some serious accountability with prosecution to the full extent of the laws they have broken in plain sight
I think you are referring to Glenn Kirschner who uses the same language and inspired me. We do not need new laws, we “only” need to vigorously use and prosecute under existing laws. For example, what ever happened to the Emoluments Clause? Probably the same place that “well-regulated militia” went, or the insurrection isn’t clause of the 14th Amendment. The corruption is deep and wide and out in plain sight.
Yes it will likely be terrorism and in addition to the Putin examples he has a home grown example of a terrorism false flag and that is 9/11. Sorry folks... Those three buildings were brought down via controlled demolition and nothing else...
Johan: This excellent comment ofd yours tells exactly what, and how, Trump will try his best to activate the Authoritarian Play Book for takeovers of our democratic nation.
Please post your warning EVERY DAY from now on -- on every website and podcast you can find. Keep this message in front of Voting Citizens in so many, many places on line that it actually enters the general knowledge base of people in every corner of this country.
Like Timothy Snyder, you have a real handle on what is happening here. And also, like Professor Snyder, you say it both clearly and well. And we MUST ACT ON THIS.
Dr. Snyder, one scenario I did not see in your excellent analysis is that he would cancel the midterms in a state of emergency. This is very plausible since he will soon discover that he cannot rig the elections enough to make a difference. Then all the other scenarios get even more likely. As far as using violence against Americans, I see that starting with military or quasi military violence against massive peaceful demonstrations, in part perhaps as the prelude to a state of emergency. In this regard, s historical parallel that we might consider is to ask, what if LBJ had not been persuaded by Dr. King to opt for a Civil Rights Act instead of passivity toward Bull Connor. But where is the kind of leadership today that Dr. King embodied 60 years ago? That's what we lack.
It isn't obvious to me that he has the authority to cancel elections. The elections are supposed to be run by the states. States hold the sovereignty to elect their representatives. Why would the president have the power to block elections organized by states? Note - I'm asking rhetorical questions from a true state of ignorance. Maybe I'm wrong. If so please explain.
He doesn't have the authority to do anything he does, but he does it anyway until the courts tell him he can't, which typically takes at least 6 months. Meanwhile, Republican state and local election boards can follow suit, completely mooting any elections that take place in blue states or precincts. His specialty is causing confusion and chaos.
I agree with you on that. I guess I wonder what mechanism of lackeys he has in this case to actually deploy his misguided edict. I don't see as obvious of a chain of command to block them here. Not trying to engage in wishful thinking.
Hi Brent, I see him indeed attempting what Gerson is stating, where it turns into a Red State vs Blue State mosh pit quagmire filled with Blue AGs suing him and Red Elections Officials and Congress trying to muddy it up (hello li'l Mike Johnson) as well as gaslight MAGA sharecroppers into allegiance to the plantation's latest Righteous Cause.
My bigger worry is those MAGAns either overtly being called to (or more likely, taking matters into their own hands with) widespread violence. And then there's always the ICE factor....
What a great point. Hopefully much more astute folks than myself are analyzing just such a thing. They have to be, right? I live in Arizona, where (as you may know) the Governor and AG are both Blue...by razor thin margins. On the Red side, we are also one of the most militant and violence-leaning people in the US, in my opinion (border and trafficking issues keep us at an elevated baseline). The bipolar political nature here, even at the district/county level, to your point, will really come into play. I'm pretty nervous.
Yeah, he doesn't have the authority to rent the US military out to Netanyahoo, either.
He doesn't have the authority to grab people off the streets and hold them without due process.
He doesn't have the authority to tear down 1/3 of the White House to build a bunker to stay safe in while he reigns / rains chaos over the nation using ICE thugs. Etc.
So reflect on how he's done those things... those are the kinds of things we need to stop.
Red State officials might cancel their elections, but Blues won't. Such a scenario leaves Dens in charge of Congress, maybe with veto proof majorities. Such a Congress might even ratify some new Amendments to get a discussion started on how to fix our out of date Constitution filled with vulnerabilities.
It does not necessarily leave blues in charge of Congress. The red House and Senate members from red states would still remain But all this is pure speculation, including my initial post suggesting such a scenario. In fact, if Trump calls a national emergency and tries to defer the election, any election will be moot, will be challenged immediately in court petitions, and will simply paralyze the legislature. Not to mention the prospect of civil violence and violent government response. Not a pretty picture at all. Nobody wins. America loses.
That option would be very difficult for him even though he’s already stated it as a possibility.
However, we have sufficient evidence of elections during war from the Civil War to World War Two. Legally, he doesn’t have any hope of claiming that he can pause an election.
Legally, yes, but when did that stop him? It would be appealed to death and tied up in court for years. And I wouldn't overestimate his knowledge or respect for history.
It’ll be the swing states he will focus on to rig. Let’s target them and show up en masse. Not necessarily to vote but to keep ice, Trumps personal gestapo, from intimidating folks from voting. Nov 3 we should shut down the country and declare its voting day for all !
There is ample precedent for POTUS's taking military action less than full war--or arguably so: Granada, Libya, Panama, Afghanistan (Clinton's cruise missile attack on Al Quada)... .
What bothers me is Trump talking about further gutting healthcare, and needed services to fund war escalation; my worry is Rs in Congress approving it. I know from Nazi history that Hitler diverted much from the German people to keep his war going. His people suffered from lack of food and heat among other scarcities.
It does seem that fewer and fewer people are obeying in advance, based on the ever-increasing size of rallies (such as No Kings) and huge voter turnouts in what previously would have been regarded as inconsequential elections. I am heartened by that. I also do not believe that our weak little commander in chief can persuade the nation to rally around the flag in support of this war. That may have worked a century ago when we were fighting wars that made sense, and living in a more collective culture, but it will never work in a more individualistic society when we are fighting a stupid and pointless war.
Anything run by the very rich is still obeying in advance. A professor was fired for criticizing Trump’s stupid war in Iran. The genuinely dumbest war ever, in which the most costly military in the world is being beaten by basement drones and a backed-up toilet
Let’s organize huge rallies for NO COUPS. We can make this very real threat into a national message for we the people. Let’s fight like hell to intellectually prepare our base against his likely terrorist tactics. We can’t allow this to take us all the way down to defeat.
The story is that Trump started this war in Iran for no reason. After reading Timothy Snyder s post, I am very concerned that we now know what his reason actually is.
There's another kind of gnawing terror: that the money is gone. It's not just expertise and competence that's been hollowed out of the government, and Trump hinted about that at the unintentionally broadcast lunch for Christian Nationalists at the White House on his Very Bad Day. He said we couldn't have the Feds offering the people things like day care and other social support because our job is just the military, to keep the country safe - we don't have the money for anything else. That, and the almost certainty that the financial markets are going to wake up soon means disaster for many retirees, stasis for the middle class, and despair for the least privileged. Economist Heather Long of the Navy Credit Union has done a great job of reading behind the headlines on things like the recent apparently very good jobs report - which is based on a survey. The real numbers are very different. Wharton experts think our real national debt is 100 trillion, and as I recall, we owe a lot of it to China and it can be called in. If the big new military spending budget passes, God help us. For the first time, I can imagine a military coup to save the country if we can't.
The immediate risk is that Trump is going to deploy his personal police force (ICE) and the military to all Blue states to insure that the mid-terms are secure. They will be told to aggressively check all ID's of potential voters and to delay the times to vote to insure that many will be frustrated from voting. After the voting if it appears that the votes are not going in his favor he will order the seizure of ballots and voting machines to find fraud. He is not going to be subtle or strategic. Remember that his idea is that force is right and like all crime bosses you have to give homage or you will endure pain.
I truly believe our focus on midterms is misplaced; Trump will find a way to cancel them, whatever ploy it takes, legal or otherwise. We’ve got to get him removed NOW.
So true: TS: "Tehran has more to gain by mocking Pete Hegseth (as in a recent video) than by seeking to assassinate him. (Indeed, given Hegseth’s particular combination of strategic incompetence and Christian nationalism, he must seem like a God-given enemy for the regime in Teheran.)"
Maybe Lindsey Graham and Roger Wicker can ponder this truth?
Trump and his MAGA congress would not be in power if not for the massive spending by the oil industry to get them there. All of us need to look at our lives and see if we are doing anything that helps our enemies. Buying gasoline is, for the majority of Americans, the most harmful thing they do in their entire lives. Affordable electric cars have been available for 15 years. The environmental, health, military, and political costs of oil have been known for over 20 years.
Never buy a gas car again.
Research which EV will serve your daily needs, figure out where you will charge it, then save up and get it done as quickly as possible. It needs to be your top priority.
The power grid is not going to explode. Where in the world did you get that idea? Hybrids burn gasoline, only pure EVs do not. Hybrids were a good idea 20 years ago. You've had affordable EVs available for over 15 years.
Since you are driving a gas car now, if you want to mitigate the harm you're causing, you should learn to hypermile (a term for efficient driving) and get very good at it. You'll save money, reduce the harm you're causing, and you'll be a safer driver since hypermiling is the safest form of driving. The next car you buy should be all-electric.
An abridged version of this post should be published in every newspaper and widely circulated through social media. Surely there’s a good billionaire who would fund the project. Hopefully, alerting the public as Tim does here will defeat the inevitable coup attempt.
One of the 5 UNeasy pieces is a flashback to the 60s. Though not sinisterly deliberate, the effect was to Hoover [vacuum up] social programs' funding into the US war machine's budget.
The American War in Viet Nam all but obliterated LBJ's Great Society.
The Russian operative in the Oval Office is unfit.
I had thought that, too, and had looked it up. Seems "brig" has kind of become an all-purpose term for any military jail (though, true, brig I think was once mostly for sailors). Stockade (and a few other terms) often used for army. (In real life, I just call 'em all "the pokey.")
Like Silvio who's already replied to you, David, I, too, took it not as a typo, but as a joke.
That is, given the evident spinelessness of actual Secretary of State Marco, and the enthusiasm for any and all foaming power and suck-up-to-Donald priorities of the former Fox clown.
Whatever platform you have in addition to Substack please post this. It may be the most important piece Timothy Snyder has posted since the obscene escalator ride in 2015.
Re TS's point #2 regarding the re-jiggling of spending priorities (and our gargantuan level of national debt) please look at the following from AXIOS. And just ponder for a second the wisdom of entrusting Pete Hegseth and JD Vance with the responsibility of spending pentagon money wisely:
Snyder maps the coup scenarios correctly. Here’s the behavioral reality:
Trump doesn’t need coherent strategy. He just needs everyone else to freeze while he improvises.
The five scenarios share one mechanic: they require elites willing to break norms and a public uncertain enough not to resist immediately.
From a behavioral economics perspective this is the power of defaults. Most people, including officials, follow established procedures unless given clear reasons not to. Coups work by creating enough ambiguity that people default to compliance while “waiting to see what happens.”
Trump’s advantage isn’t brilliance, it’s shamelessness. He’ll try all five scenarios simultaneously, whichever generates momentum. The 50% defense budget increase is a bribe for irregular order compliance.
The terrorism scenario is his best bet because it’s Putin’s proven playbook. 1999 apartment bombings gave Putin emergency powers he never relinquished. Trump doesn’t need to execute it well, just create enough confusion that half the country believes his version long enough for emergency powers to operationalize.
The timing vulnerability: Two weeks before the election, when early voting shows blowout margins.
That’s when “terrorist threat requires postponement” or “can’t change leadership mid-crisis.”
What stops it: Active refusal, not anticipation alone. Governors ignoring postponement orders. Military following Constitution. Election officials counting votes regardless. People in streets before the attempt, not after.
Knowledge changes outcomes only if it translates to precommitment. Decide now what your red lines are and what you’ll do when crossed.
Otherwise we’ll watch the coup unfold while waiting for someone else to stop it.
—Johan
I agree that terrorism is the likely scenario. The racist misogynist PedoFelon finds it easiest to blame the “others” - Black people, brown, yellow, red, Ukrainians, Canadians, Danes/Greenlanders and now Iranians. One blaring note: the Pedoligarch is such a bombastic insecure media whore that he’ll continue to post his social truths PRIOR to actions.
I REALLY wish the independent media and public STOP quoting CBS as we all know they, like fox and others, are quisling mouthpieces for the regime.
Pretti and Good were white, yet called domestic terrorists by the Trump regime almost immediately, with no walk-back or clarification to this day.
Seems it’s easier for this corrupt regime to call anyone, who gets harmed or killed, as a domestic terrorist. Better (to them) than referring to them as collateral damage. It’s all intolerable. And so wrong.
It’s the old “Blame the victim.” Never admit to failure or mistakes.
The longest MAGA through-line is hatred of immigrants. Making the terrorists immigrants--Somalians, say--would be a two-fer.
Precisely.
Actually the rapidly growing Christian Nationalist & Groyper movement, which represents the darkest, less-exposed but always operating aspect of the MAGA movement, is hatred of Jews. The anti-semitism has apocalyptic overtones because the mob who condemned Jesus to death were Jewish. It's the deepest through-line of hatred, I'd say. Brown people, so the logic goes, you just throw away; but persecute Jews and you are avenging Christ. [SIDE NOTE: that is NOT REAL CHRISTIANITY. But it's sadly a HUGE chunk of people who consider themselves christians. Huge].
Thank you, Johan, for the strategic wisdom from which we all need to learn in order to be effective in our resistance to any and all of the assaults on our constitutional republic that Timothy spells out for us that are already underway.
Right on target on timing.
My bet for mitigating this earlier rather than later is a legal pursuit NOW on behalf of the PEOPLE:
This may be a JAG question - But now that the JAG office has been decimated, do you believe that there may be a civil class action possible on behalf of all of the American people in regards to the clear harms that inherently arise out of the firing of the top army general for so far, undisputed non-performance grounds by the secretary of defense? If so, is there ANY legal pathway for emergency SCOTUS involvement considering the clear hazard to the constitution and the country overall from the dangerous consolidation of power that this perceived loyalty-based decision acutely generates? Can the similar recent firings of other top military officers be a part of, and support the people’s standing in such a case?
Thanks for your suggestion, Laurel. If you subscribe to Glenn, could you perhaps relay it to him on behalf of the rest of us that are curious??
I have also written the following which admits the flaws in my knowledge and most likely, the post in general. But like us all, I’ll think of anything I can to preserve this democracy:
SCOTUS tends to default to the congress when there is a (in our time, “perceived”) political solution. Congress loves to support Judicial Remedies when they can point to (or their party pursues) a legal solution. Why can’t there be a parallel pursuit of both political and legal remedies - simultaneously? An impeachment in our time is clearly a ‘political’ issue by “LAWMAKERS.” A “class action” on behalf of ALL the people should, under the current circumstances, be understood to be based on both incurred AND impending harm to the public… Oh, the public (their pressure), yes, that seems to have proven to be the only correction - “in our time.” -Seems like it should work on both fronts - simultaneously. That would be a first, wouldn’t it?
- Not being a trained legal professional at all, legal experts will (appropriately) dismiss these words as NONSENSE - word salad logic of a pipe dream.
Dude, I really like this. Thanks for pushing me to think about this angle.
The most recent “No Kings” demonstrations are said to have pulled at least 8 and as many as 9 million Americans out of passivity and into the streets and public squares of the the U.S. Unfortunately, I fear that these ‘unprecedented’ numbers, reputed to be "the largest public demonstation in U.S. history" are still far too low, in aggregate, to effect the necessary changes — one being to apply an effective brake to the chaotic and unrestrained efforts of the Executive cabal that seeks to overthrow the republic.
The demonstrations aren't a solution. Rather they're a tactic for further organizing. One of the most remarkable parts of this last No Kings day of protests showed was that there were so many new places where resistance showed up -- in deep red districts. It's a sign that people are organizing everywhere, which is an indication that change can indeed happen in a country as vast and culturally diverse as ours.
Keep in mind that GenZ from what I have read, did not show up anywhere near in the numbers that older people showed up for No Kings. There needs to be a focus on messaging to that demographic in a way that they can receive - and accept as not being talked down to them as they already perceive is being done within the overwhelming information they receive through their information sources.
Older folks don’t have the time and attention restraints that younger ones do. We’ve raised our families, made our place in the world & don’t usually have to work long hours just to make ends meet. We also better understand what this political moment can lead to. So of course there are more retirees on the streets. I think more white people are taking our privileges more seriously and realize it’s safer for us to protest than for POC.
Everything you said is right on target. Since we need the numbers, perhaps some widespread messaging to the younger (admittedly screwed) generations might be something "eloquently" put like:
You Know Things Are Fucked Up, But You Have The Power THIS YEAR To Stop Them From Being Fucked Up Forever.....Your Vote Voice In November.
The draft may be a motivator
Yup - should be!
Btw nice song!!
Thank you !
This is a very important point. I've been to every rally and, yes there are a lot of older people. I think one reason is that people in their 70s and 80s had parents and relatives that fought in WWII and know very well the fight against Fascism. At the last rally, more young people showed up which was heartening. However, we all need to do whatever we can to get the younger people informed and excited about saving their future and the future of democracy. Your suggested line below is a start.
Thank you, J. Busby. - In addition, the youngest generation voters have only really lived during the chaos years of the last 10 years plus the vitriol of the political years prior. Many don’t have the experience of better times considering needing 2 jobs and constantly receiving stressful and conflicting messages from their media and those in power.
I am working on other election protection preparations messaging and would like to start a geographically unrestricted collective or perhaps, an Indivisible Group that has such a model if anyone out there is interested… LET ME KNOW 😀
I asked AI. Here is what it said:
Engaging Gen Z voters effectively requires understanding their unique characteristics and preferences. Here are key strategies to encourage their turnout:
Authentic Communication
Be Genuine: Gen Z values authenticity. Communicate transparently about campaign goals and policies.
Show the Human Side: Highlight personal stories and real-life impacts of issues to connect emotionally.
Focus on Relevant Issues
Identify Key Concerns: Address issues that resonate with Gen Z, such as climate change, social justice, and education.
Educate on Candidates: Provide clear information about candidates' stances on these issues to help them make informed choices.
Utilize Social Media
Active Presence: Engage on platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter, where Gen Z spends much of their time.
Tailor Content: Customize messages for each platform to align with its culture and trends.
Encourage Digital Participation
Online Engagement: Offer virtual town halls, online volunteering, and digital activism events to facilitate participation.
Interactive Content: Create memes, GIFs, or PSAs that are shareable and relevant to their interests.
Build Community
Create Safe Spaces: Foster environments where young people can discuss issues and connect with peers and mentors.
Involve Influencers: Partner with trusted figures within their social circles to amplify messages and encourage participation.
I think using Indivisible would be a good was to organize. I'm also thinking of a rally with music and other attractions with speakers.
Wow Mr. Busby - It looks like Ai is (with its dangerous capabilities) rather ADVANTAGEOUS and on target here! Thank you again, and on the music front, here is just one 3- minute Anthem To Protect Immigrants & Elections that I wrote a few weeks ago. Check it out: https://philbarish.com/peoplesaurusrex
Agreed - and this is why expanded efforts by ALL OF US to disseminate what’s really going on per Dr. Snyder, is key to moving the leverage of the plank over the fulcrum point against the takeover.
Ding ding ding
Yes, Johan, Donald's "advantage isn't brilliance, it's shamelessness."
We all know how he's been following "Putin's proven playbook" And that of Orban. But he needn't wait till two weeks before the election, as we all know now of the coming "blowout margins."
We all know of his intent, as T. Snyder has written here, to use "war to advance the impoverishment and peonization of everyone but a tiny elite."
All his life Donald has prospered by catering to this "tiny elite," to whom Donald's best pal Jeffrey for year trafficked underage girls, plus other nefarious mixes of money laundering, arms dealing, and drug shipments.
It's all totally brazen. His building now of concentration camps follows upon his organization of his own brown shirt terror corps -- ICE and CBP. His firing of gnome Pam Bondi at the DOJ cleverly buys him time to stave off further revelations of his criminality with pal Jeffrey.
Outstanding summation by Johan of Timothy Snyder's astounding exposure of Trump's headlong lurch toward a stranglehold on all of us. Thank you both. We really do have to stand together, now through the November Elections, and beyond. This is truly terrifying. It can go either way if we are not united, educated in what is happening, and utterly committed to STOP this evil, right here in our beloved United States of America.
Shamelessness is their superpower, hypocrisy is their badge of honor, and the emotional deterrents to evil behaviors melt away. We need some serious accountability with prosecution to the full extent of the laws they have broken in plain sight
I think you are referring to Glenn Kirschner who uses the same language and inspired me. We do not need new laws, we “only” need to vigorously use and prosecute under existing laws. For example, what ever happened to the Emoluments Clause? Probably the same place that “well-regulated militia” went, or the insurrection isn’t clause of the 14th Amendment. The corruption is deep and wide and out in plain sight.
“The timing vulnerability: Two weeks before the election, when early voting shows blowout margins…People in streets before the attempt, not after.”
Maybe the pre-election protests could be labeled: “Voting, no coups.”
Your thinking is very good. Thanks.
Yes it will likely be terrorism and in addition to the Putin examples he has a home grown example of a terrorism false flag and that is 9/11. Sorry folks... Those three buildings were brought down via controlled demolition and nothing else...
Johan: This excellent comment ofd yours tells exactly what, and how, Trump will try his best to activate the Authoritarian Play Book for takeovers of our democratic nation.
Please post your warning EVERY DAY from now on -- on every website and podcast you can find. Keep this message in front of Voting Citizens in so many, many places on line that it actually enters the general knowledge base of people in every corner of this country.
Like Timothy Snyder, you have a real handle on what is happening here. And also, like Professor Snyder, you say it both clearly and well. And we MUST ACT ON THIS.
Thank you for this analysis.
No Kings organizer here. We have mostly millenials & Gen Z organizers, mostly older folks that attend.
Q: WHEN do we get ppl in the streets again in large numbers? How would we know to do it "before the attempt, not after"?
Yes! 💯%!!!
Dr. Snyder, one scenario I did not see in your excellent analysis is that he would cancel the midterms in a state of emergency. This is very plausible since he will soon discover that he cannot rig the elections enough to make a difference. Then all the other scenarios get even more likely. As far as using violence against Americans, I see that starting with military or quasi military violence against massive peaceful demonstrations, in part perhaps as the prelude to a state of emergency. In this regard, s historical parallel that we might consider is to ask, what if LBJ had not been persuaded by Dr. King to opt for a Civil Rights Act instead of passivity toward Bull Connor. But where is the kind of leadership today that Dr. King embodied 60 years ago? That's what we lack.
It isn't obvious to me that he has the authority to cancel elections. The elections are supposed to be run by the states. States hold the sovereignty to elect their representatives. Why would the president have the power to block elections organized by states? Note - I'm asking rhetorical questions from a true state of ignorance. Maybe I'm wrong. If so please explain.
He doesn't have the authority to do anything he does, but he does it anyway until the courts tell him he can't, which typically takes at least 6 months. Meanwhile, Republican state and local election boards can follow suit, completely mooting any elections that take place in blue states or precincts. His specialty is causing confusion and chaos.
I agree with you on that. I guess I wonder what mechanism of lackeys he has in this case to actually deploy his misguided edict. I don't see as obvious of a chain of command to block them here. Not trying to engage in wishful thinking.
Hi Brent, I see him indeed attempting what Gerson is stating, where it turns into a Red State vs Blue State mosh pit quagmire filled with Blue AGs suing him and Red Elections Officials and Congress trying to muddy it up (hello li'l Mike Johnson) as well as gaslight MAGA sharecroppers into allegiance to the plantation's latest Righteous Cause.
My bigger worry is those MAGAns either overtly being called to (or more likely, taking matters into their own hands with) widespread violence. And then there's always the ICE factor....
I hope I'm very, very wrong.
Ah. So the lever of power or Command and Control (i.e.lackeys) is political threats to red state AGs. Do what I say or else.
It would be interesting to know what fraction of potential congressional districts that Democrats can target would be governed by red state AGs
What a great point. Hopefully much more astute folks than myself are analyzing just such a thing. They have to be, right? I live in Arizona, where (as you may know) the Governor and AG are both Blue...by razor thin margins. On the Red side, we are also one of the most militant and violence-leaning people in the US, in my opinion (border and trafficking issues keep us at an elevated baseline). The bipolar political nature here, even at the district/county level, to your point, will really come into play. I'm pretty nervous.
Yeah, he doesn't have the authority to rent the US military out to Netanyahoo, either.
He doesn't have the authority to grab people off the streets and hold them without due process.
He doesn't have the authority to tear down 1/3 of the White House to build a bunker to stay safe in while he reigns / rains chaos over the nation using ICE thugs. Etc.
So reflect on how he's done those things... those are the kinds of things we need to stop.
Red State officials might cancel their elections, but Blues won't. Such a scenario leaves Dens in charge of Congress, maybe with veto proof majorities. Such a Congress might even ratify some new Amendments to get a discussion started on how to fix our out of date Constitution filled with vulnerabilities.
It does not necessarily leave blues in charge of Congress. The red House and Senate members from red states would still remain But all this is pure speculation, including my initial post suggesting such a scenario. In fact, if Trump calls a national emergency and tries to defer the election, any election will be moot, will be challenged immediately in court petitions, and will simply paralyze the legislature. Not to mention the prospect of civil violence and violent government response. Not a pretty picture at all. Nobody wins. America loses.
That option would be very difficult for him even though he’s already stated it as a possibility.
However, we have sufficient evidence of elections during war from the Civil War to World War Two. Legally, he doesn’t have any hope of claiming that he can pause an election.
Death, taxes, and elections! The American way!
Legally, yes, but when did that stop him? It would be appealed to death and tied up in court for years. And I wouldn't overestimate his knowledge or respect for history.
It’ll be the swing states he will focus on to rig. Let’s target them and show up en masse. Not necessarily to vote but to keep ice, Trumps personal gestapo, from intimidating folks from voting. Nov 3 we should shut down the country and declare its voting day for all !
Exactly
If service men and women were going to act, why aren’t they already acting since the war is illegal and they are supposed to defy illegal orders?
Good question!
There is ample precedent for POTUS's taking military action less than full war--or arguably so: Granada, Libya, Panama, Afghanistan (Clinton's cruise missile attack on Al Quada)... .
What bothers me is Trump talking about further gutting healthcare, and needed services to fund war escalation; my worry is Rs in Congress approving it. I know from Nazi history that Hitler diverted much from the German people to keep his war going. His people suffered from lack of food and heat among other scarcities.
Hitler had all the able-bodied men fighting his war so that the cold and starving Germans in the major cities were "just women." We should be worried.
It does seem that fewer and fewer people are obeying in advance, based on the ever-increasing size of rallies (such as No Kings) and huge voter turnouts in what previously would have been regarded as inconsequential elections. I am heartened by that. I also do not believe that our weak little commander in chief can persuade the nation to rally around the flag in support of this war. That may have worked a century ago when we were fighting wars that made sense, and living in a more collective culture, but it will never work in a more individualistic society when we are fighting a stupid and pointless war.
Anything run by the very rich is still obeying in advance. A professor was fired for criticizing Trump’s stupid war in Iran. The genuinely dumbest war ever, in which the most costly military in the world is being beaten by basement drones and a backed-up toilet
In what university was that professor fired? Did he not have tenure?
Let’s organize huge rallies for NO COUPS. We can make this very real threat into a national message for we the people. Let’s fight like hell to intellectually prepare our base against his likely terrorist tactics. We can’t allow this to take us all the way down to defeat.
The No Kings is scaling up to general strike level.
The story is that Trump started this war in Iran for no reason. After reading Timothy Snyder s post, I am very concerned that we now know what his reason actually is.
There's another kind of gnawing terror: that the money is gone. It's not just expertise and competence that's been hollowed out of the government, and Trump hinted about that at the unintentionally broadcast lunch for Christian Nationalists at the White House on his Very Bad Day. He said we couldn't have the Feds offering the people things like day care and other social support because our job is just the military, to keep the country safe - we don't have the money for anything else. That, and the almost certainty that the financial markets are going to wake up soon means disaster for many retirees, stasis for the middle class, and despair for the least privileged. Economist Heather Long of the Navy Credit Union has done a great job of reading behind the headlines on things like the recent apparently very good jobs report - which is based on a survey. The real numbers are very different. Wharton experts think our real national debt is 100 trillion, and as I recall, we owe a lot of it to China and it can be called in. If the big new military spending budget passes, God help us. For the first time, I can imagine a military coup to save the country if we can't.
Yes, Heather Long 👍
The immediate risk is that Trump is going to deploy his personal police force (ICE) and the military to all Blue states to insure that the mid-terms are secure. They will be told to aggressively check all ID's of potential voters and to delay the times to vote to insure that many will be frustrated from voting. After the voting if it appears that the votes are not going in his favor he will order the seizure of ballots and voting machines to find fraud. He is not going to be subtle or strategic. Remember that his idea is that force is right and like all crime bosses you have to give homage or you will endure pain.
I truly believe our focus on midterms is misplaced; Trump will find a way to cancel them, whatever ploy it takes, legal or otherwise. We’ve got to get him removed NOW.
Well, the military had better aggressively REFUSE to check those IDs. (The oaths they once took may have addressed such situations.)
So true: TS: "Tehran has more to gain by mocking Pete Hegseth (as in a recent video) than by seeking to assassinate him. (Indeed, given Hegseth’s particular combination of strategic incompetence and Christian nationalism, he must seem like a God-given enemy for the regime in Teheran.)"
Maybe Lindsey Graham and Roger Wicker can ponder this truth?
Trump and his MAGA congress would not be in power if not for the massive spending by the oil industry to get them there. All of us need to look at our lives and see if we are doing anything that helps our enemies. Buying gasoline is, for the majority of Americans, the most harmful thing they do in their entire lives. Affordable electric cars have been available for 15 years. The environmental, health, military, and political costs of oil have been known for over 20 years.
Never buy a gas car again.
Research which EV will serve your daily needs, figure out where you will charge it, then save up and get it done as quickly as possible. It needs to be your top priority.
Until the electrical power grid explodes, then what? Some of us have hybrids, you know.
The power grid is not going to explode. Where in the world did you get that idea? Hybrids burn gasoline, only pure EVs do not. Hybrids were a good idea 20 years ago. You've had affordable EVs available for over 15 years.
Since you are driving a gas car now, if you want to mitigate the harm you're causing, you should learn to hypermile (a term for efficient driving) and get very good at it. You'll save money, reduce the harm you're causing, and you'll be a safer driver since hypermiling is the safest form of driving. The next car you buy should be all-electric.
Thank you for laying out the likely scenarios. Invaluable information.
An abridged version of this post should be published in every newspaper and widely circulated through social media. Surely there’s a good billionaire who would fund the project. Hopefully, alerting the public as Tim does here will defeat the inevitable coup attempt.
One of the 5 UNeasy pieces is a flashback to the 60s. Though not sinisterly deliberate, the effect was to Hoover [vacuum up] social programs' funding into the US war machine's budget.
The American War in Viet Nam all but obliterated LBJ's Great Society.
The Russian operative in the Oval Office is unfit.
We must use this to our advantage.
Typo at the beginning: Hegseth is DoD/DoW not State.
Or maybe in a way not a typo, since Hegseth appears to be taking on the role of foreign policy enforcer.
The only role I want to see Hegseth playing is "brig inhabitant."
i think he’s an army guy, and i thought only sailors go to the brig. but what do i know? never been there
I had thought that, too, and had looked it up. Seems "brig" has kind of become an all-purpose term for any military jail (though, true, brig I think was once mostly for sailors). Stockade (and a few other terms) often used for army. (In real life, I just call 'em all "the pokey.")
Like Silvio who's already replied to you, David, I, too, took it not as a typo, but as a joke.
That is, given the evident spinelessness of actual Secretary of State Marco, and the enthusiasm for any and all foaming power and suck-up-to-Donald priorities of the former Fox clown.
Whatever platform you have in addition to Substack please post this. It may be the most important piece Timothy Snyder has posted since the obscene escalator ride in 2015.
Re TS's point #2 regarding the re-jiggling of spending priorities (and our gargantuan level of national debt) please look at the following from AXIOS. And just ponder for a second the wisdom of entrusting Pete Hegseth and JD Vance with the responsibility of spending pentagon money wisely:
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/04/trump-budget-pentagon-domestic-spending